Be Weary of the Combine
by Luke Paul Chandler
With the 2008 Combine not far away, Josh Gaier gives us reasons to be weary of this spectacle.
By Josh Gaier
We’ve all constantly heard that drafting in the NFL is not a skill, but rather an art. And, like all great artists, each general manager uses their own unique strategies and scouting philosophies to add the finishing touches to a beautiful piece of artwork, known as an NFL franchise. Some general managers prefer to draft prospects that stick out like a sore thumb with their on-field production, while others draft based on physical attributes amid a players’ lackluster collegiate production. However, how often do these physical marvels live up to the hype surrounding their physique?
With the popularity of the NFL Scouting Combine at its peak, NFL hopefuls are able to boost their NFL stock on how well they can perform drills with a pair of slacks and gym shorts on. Prospective draftees are given a second chance to atone for their marginal on field production. However, mesmerized by breathtaking 40-yard dash times, some general managers alter their drafting strategy to solely reflect the results of this job interview, instead of using it as a measuring stick – something it was intended to be used as.
At the 1995 NFL Combine, Boston College defensive end Mike Mamula raised his stock an unprecedented amount due exclusively to his remarkable combine performance. Arguably posting the best Combine numbers ever, Mamula tied for the most 225-pound bench press repetitions, scored an unheard of 49/50 on the Wonderlic Test and recorded a blazing 4.48 40-yard dash as a defensive end. In turn, his unbelievable Combine turned the former second-day prospect into the No. 7 overall pick! In fact, the Philadelphia Eagles traded their first round pick and two second rounds picks to move up in the draft to snatch the Boston College athletic wizard. Ironically, their traded first round pick resulted in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selection of Warren Sapp. Shortly after his dollar-raising performance, the term “workout warrior” was quickly derived, and changed the outlook of the drafting process.
Within a matter of years, players who were deemed with the label recruiting bust exiting the college ranks were given a second chance to further pursue their football dreams. In a blink of a decade, NFL scouts and General managers began toying with the word potential more than ever. Players who were a proven commodity were rapidly falling down draft boards to make room for the over-hyped workout warriors. In front of our very eyes, we saw the revolution of the scouting process as we know it today.
As the 1990’s turned into the 2000’s, the Combine was used more and more as an indicator of future success in the NFL. At the 2001 NFL Combine, Freddie Mitchell dazzled the NFL scouts by running a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash and remaining atop of his fellow ’01 wide receiver draftees in nearly all his positional drills. Leading up to the draft, Mitchell was actually referred to as “Fast” Freddie Mitchell. While swimming in his pool of hype, Mitchell was able to dive his way into the first round of the 2001 NFL Draft – something he would have never done without his combine workouts. On the contrary, Oregon State receiver Chad Johnson had an extremely productive senior campaign and turned heads at the Senior Bowl. However, when Johnson posted his surprisingly marginal combine numbers - a 4.59 40-yard dash and a 32-inch vertical leap – he plummeted down draft boards faster than Fast Freddie Mitchell ran the 40-yard dash. Once a first round pick leaving the Senior Bowl now saw his name flashing on the ESPN draft ticker in the mid-second round. Seven years later, the productive senior who let his play account for his workouts is arguably the top receiver in the NFL. While on the other hand, the shooting star from the NFL Combine is out of the league.
Ironically, reoccurrences of the above situation are extremely common during the drafting season nowadays. A recent draft that comes to memory is the 2005 draft, involving two players that wowed the NFL front offices in offseason workouts: Troy Williamson and Matt Jones. After the Minnesota Vikings traded away disgruntled wide receiver Randy Moss, they were in dire need of a replacement. Despite never having a season that eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark or a season that ever surpassed the double digit touchdown barrier during his collegiate career at South Carolina, Williamson climbed his way to the No. 7 overall pick after running a 4.38 40-yard dash at the Combine. After declaring early as a junior, Williamson was believed to be a late first to early second round pick, due to his porous route running skills, inability to read a defense, and streaky hands. However, after claiming the throne as the fastest wide receiver of the 2005 class, Williamson boosted his way into the top 10 selections of the draft. Jones, on the other hand, was a college quarterback drafted in the first round as a wide receiver! At the Combine, he measured a staggering 6-foot-6, 240-plus pounds and ran a 4.41 40-yard dash. General managers started to salivate over Jones’ physical prowess like a dog drooling over a fresh grilled piece of meat. Regardless of not playing one down during his college career outside the hash marks, Jones crept his way into the first round of the draft. Years later, both combine sensations have failed to reach expectations, and have been disappointments in the eyes of all their fans.
However, these examples are just a few of many athletes that were drafted ahead of football players in the NFL Draft. Other recent names that fit the bill include: Ahmad Carroll, Bryan Thomas, Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Dewayne Robertson and Kyle Boller. In fact, you can even include 2006 Combine stud Vernon Davis in the discussion. A record-setting tight end in the weight room at Maryland, Davis entered the Combine projecting as an early second round pick. However, after running the fastest 40-yard dash in the history of the position (4.38), a 42-inch vertical jump, and a 10-foot-8 broad jump, Davis propelled his way to becoming the sixth overall pick of the San Francisco 49ers. Although it’s too early to deem Davis a bust, the injury ridden tight end has failed to meet Pro-Bowl caliber expectations that were placed upon this physical specimen after his eye-boggling combine.
Unfortunately, today the scouting world is governed by a phenomenon known as the stop watch. Although physical marvels can have success in the NFL (2006 first overall pick Mario Williams comes to mind), scouts and general managers are placing too much of an emphasis on the 40-yard dash. Instead of drafting players that have a driven attitude and have shown they can get the job done consistently and productivity over the years, front offices have been more inclined to select players with potential, despite the increasingly high failure rate among the combine boomers. You’d think front offices would learn from the mistakes of their predecessors, but it seems like none of them do. Sadly, the word potential will continue to outshine performance in the upcoming draft and the future drafts. Perhaps the legendary Bill Parcells said it best though, “Potential means you haven’t done anything.”