Who Wants It More? Championship Round
by Matt Miller
By Dave Gardner
His predictions may have suffered, but the divisional round of the playoffs didn’t. This week, two hot teams in New York and San Diego will go on the road once again as huge underdogs. In his weekly playoff primer, Dave Gardner makes his calls about “Who Wants it More?”
Manning walks up to the line of scrimmage, then settles back into the shotgun: he has directed a drive off a Philip Rivers interception that has the Colts at the Chargers’ 41. With the game at 7-0, and a 3rd and 10 looming, the Colts are in position to deliver an early knock-out blow. Out of a three WR set (with Marvin Harrison in his usual spot to the right, Dallas Clark wide left, and Reggie Wayne in the slot), the ball is snapped, and Harrison comes across the field on a crossing pattern, breaking free. Manning hits him in stride, and, while spinning to gain extra yards, Pro Bowler Antonio Cromartie pokes the ball free from Harrison and Chargers Safety Marlin McCree recovers it.
In another dome further south, another Manning stands back in the shotgun and reads the defense. It’s 3rd and 6 and the ball is at the Cowboys 20 yard line, the Cowboys lead 17-14 with just a quarter left. Steve Smith lines up to the right side, runs a ten-yard curl, turns and receives the ball for the first down; two plays later, the 265-pound Brandon Jacobs bulldozes his way into the end zone for what turned out to be the game-winning touchdown.
The most impressive thing about last weekend wasn’t Tom Brady’s majestic performance (you already know the numbers), or a pair of flipped passes from a pair of gunslingers (Favre and Romo). It was how big plays like the one above — like the Northcutt drop at the 2-yard line for the Jags, like the Marcus Pollard drop in the end zone for the Seahawks — played such a pivotal role in the outcome of each game. Green Bay’s Ryan Grant was able to overcome two early fumbles to run for an awe-inspiring 201 yards on just 27 carries, getting into the end zone three times along the way; Indianapolis’s Marvin Harrison wasn’t, his totals after the fumble: 1 catch, 10 yards.
So without even an attempt to explain last week’s performance in the picks department, let’s move on to the championship round…
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (Sunday @ 3:00 CBS)
Billy Volek handed off to Michael Turner on the game-winning drive, and you still have doubts about this team? For Chargers fans that was like reaching into a bag of all your favorite candy and somehow only getting the grape-flavored ones. Believe it or not, when the Chargers met the Patriots earlier this year, Vegas favored them. This team, as explained in the first playoff column, really blossomed down the stretch. The message from their head coach (who has quietly gone from an atrocious hire to a pleasant surprise) was that last year they were the best team in the September and November, and that the goal for this year was to be the best team in December and January. So far, they’ve accomplished that goal: the last time they lost a game was on November 18th.
You have to love the way this team is motivated going into the game. Some “experts” didn’t even think they’d make it past the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, almost no one (including… uh… this column) thought that they would beat the Colts in the last game in the RCA Dome. They keep winning without a game plan, but how? They take what’s given to them in the first half and then make excellent adjustments at halftime. They scored 7 points combined in their first two postseason games, and then went on to score 38 points in the second halves. Their view — and they’re right — is that they are the team with nothing to lose. Their offense (if healthy) has enough fire power (LT2, Gates, Chambers, and Jackson — who is coming on at the right time) to keep up with the Patriots, and their defense is great in coverage, and has the ability to put a lot of pressure on…
Tom Brady, who has been cushioned behind the best offensive line in football all year long. Most QB coaches these days teach their QBs to get rid of the ball in less than five seconds; last weekend, there were half a dozen plays in which Brady held the ball for more than five seconds, yet no one came near him. The key to their offensive line play (and to most play along the lines) is that no one ever takes a play off. If you ever take a look at the offensive line for a play, on most teams, one or more of the linemen will be standing around doing nothing. This works on a standard four-man rush, but it doesn’t work when there is a blitz, especially an overload blitz (in which the rushers are unbalanced to one side of the line of scrimmage). Their blocking is so perfect, that the Patriots were able to execute the sweetest trick play in this postseason: Brady faked a high snap over his head, a play which the Patriots have run in two different Super Bowls, with Kevin Faulk receiving a direct snap and running up the left side. Only this time, Brady kept the ball hidden, and no one was even close to him or to Wes Welker in the end zone: touchdown.
The Patriots will have to see whom the Chargers are focusing on defensively in order to build their game plan. The Jaguars tried to take away everything deep, and to neutralize Randy Moss over the top. It worked, but the Pats still have Welker, Watson, and Stallworth. They also have “Boney” Maroney who proved to be very effective against a stiff Jacksonville rush defense. On defense, the Patriots can’t make the mistake of ignoring LT2 because of his ineffectiveness to this point in the postseason; that guy is always one run away from taking it the distance. Along with that comes the emergence of Vincent Jackson; Randall Gay (recently promoted to starting CB over Hobbs) and Asante Samuel will have their hands full.
Player to Watch: Antonio Cromartie. His ability to lock down one of the Patriots receivers (probably Randy Moss) will be key to the defensive success of the Chargers. If the Chargers can play in man, they’ll be able to put a lot of pressure on Tom Brady, which seems to be the only way to beat this team.
Prediction: The Chargers will have to play four complete quarters against the Patriots, that’s where the Jaguars fell apart. They’ll have to play a good first half, keep up, and then continue to dominate the second half of games. Still, the Patriots are the most talented and motivated team in football. Don’t forget about how much the Chargers hate the Patriots. So who wants it more? 27-24… Patriots. But the Chargers will put up a big fight.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Sunday @ 6:30 FOX)
Everyone knows Brett Favre is from Mississippi, right? Well then, why in the world is that guy so good in the cold? Not only is he making himself look more athletic than guys that are a decade younger than him (look at that replay of the flip pass, it doesn’t get old), he is defying the skeptics that say that you can’t sling it around in the cold. Brett Favre has only lost one postseason game in his career at home! This guy knows how to play a game in the cold (or the heat, for that matter), and he will be ready and hoping for the second heavy-snow game of his career. A lot of questions coming into last week surrounded how young the Packers were (besides Favre). It didn’t seem to affect any one of their players: Atari Bigby (sweet name, second-year player, first-year starter) delivered in the game of his life, laying huge hits on everyone that came into his path. Greg Jennings (second-year player, second-round draft pick) caught 6 passes for 71 yards, and a pair of TDs.
The Packers’ key to success this season — much like the Patriots’ — has been the play of their offensive line. On Ryan Grant’s game-sealing 43-yard run, they lined up in with an unbalanced line to the left: three men left of center, with just one off to the right. Grant ran 43 yards before being dragged down from behind. It’s pretty cool not to be touched for 43 yards in a football game. You’ll also notice, if you take a look at the box score, that megabucks free-agent acquisition Patrick Kerney, whom this column has a great deal of respect for, was turned into an extremely well-paid spectator by Green Bay RT Mark Tauscher. He and his fellow linemen will have a few huge problems on their hands by the names of…
Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck, all three of whom were top-twenty in sacks during the regular season. While they weren’t huge on the stat sheet on Sunday, they were a truculent force in the final quarter, making Romo uncomfortable to the point where they wiped that little smirk he normally has right off of his face. He uncharacteristically yelled at his linemen and the officials (even though he was right: intentional grounding can only be called when the QB is facing imminent loss of yardage; Romo had simply given up on the play, which is legal). Romo is a streaky quarterback, but has the potential to be one of the best. He needs to exorcise not just his playoff demons, but also his late-season demons: in the last four games of each of his regular seasons as a starter, the Cowboys are 1-3. Ouch.
The Giants, on the other hand, may be discovering that their quarterback has a bit of clutch. He has been cool under pressure, and hasn’t tried to force the ball into coverage. Has he turned the corner in his career? It’s hard to say that right now, but his completion percentage (71.1) and his yards per attempt (7.7) have been nothing short of magnificent in the postseason. Don’t buy into people saying he’s only being asked to manage the game. When the game was on the line, Eli Manning had the ball, not Brandon Jacobs, not Ahmad Bradshaw. His real challenge will be not to revert to his late-season form in the snow, at Buffalo, for example, where he was 7-15 for 111 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. If the weather is bad, and I’m the Giants, I have no problem giving the ball to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw 40-45 times during the game, controlling the tempo and keeping the ball out of the Brett Favre’s (freakishly huge) hands.
<i>Player to Watch</i>: Mark Tauscher (he sure is getting a lot of love in this column, huh?). He performed superbly against the best left end this season in Patrick Kerney. Can he repeat his success against one of the best left ends ever, Michael Strahan? If he can, the Packers can give extra help to Chad Clifton on the right side against Umenyiora, and Brett Favre will be able to shred the depleted Giants secondary.
Prediction: Brett Favre will add another chapter to his legendary book, and the feel-good story of the year will continue for at least two more weeks. The Giants have played admirably in the playoffs, but the Packers have too much talent and too great of home-field advantage to lose this game. Packers, 31-21.
Next Week: Well… it’s a bye, but I won’t be resting my starters. The column will go on. If most of the vacancies are filled, I’ll take a look at the new head coaches around the league. If not, I’ll make something up.