What to Watch For This Season
by Matt Brown
With the 2009 NFL Draft already creeping up on us, come see what is on tap for this coming season.
One year ago, early 2008 NFL Draft rankings were compiled, and players like Brian Brohm, Frank Okam, Vince Hall and Adarius Bowman were among those who looked like first round picks.
When April 2008 rolled around, Brohm slipped to the second round, Okam went in the fifth and neither Hall nor Bowman was drafted at all.
Everyone knows that the draft is an inexact science, especially more than 11 months before it takes place. Eventual first round picks like Kentwan Balmer, Joe Flacco and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were barely on the radar a year ago.
Monday, we here at New Era Scouting rolled out our first batch of 2009 NFL Draft rankings. But it’s safe to say that the lists will undergo significant changes once the 2008 college football season hits in late August.
As another year of draft preparation begins, here is a look at a few of the important things to watch heading into to the 2008 college football season.
1. The quarterbacks
The senior quarterback class is solid and has some depth, with players like Curtis Painter, Cullen Harper, Hunter Cantwell, Rudy Carpenter and Chase Daniel. It’s possible that not one senior quarterback will hear his name called in the first round though. Of course, nobody saw Joe Flacco being taken in the first round, but nobody saw Brian Brohm falling out of the first round either.
The best bet to be a first round pick at quarterback is Georgia junior Matthew Stafford. Stafford has been solid in his first two seasons but has yet to really emerge as a star. At 6-3, 237 pounds, Stafford looks the part and has one of the best arms in the country. Georgia may be the best team in the nation this season, and while Knowshon Moreno will be a Heisman frontrunner at running back, Stafford may make a jump to stardom as well.
The wild card is Tim Tebow. Also a junior, Tebow is highly regarded as a prospect by many, but there are sure to be endless debates about whether or not his style of play translates from Urban Meyer’s spread offense to the NFL.
At small schools, the quarterbacks to watch are New Mexico State’s Chase Holbrook and Sam Houston State’s Rhett Bomar. Holbrook is 6-5, 240 pounds, and after his sophomore season, he looked like a potential first round pick. But his passing yards fell by more than 750 yards in his junior year, and his interceptions doubled from nine to 18.
A blue chip recruit out of high school, Bomar started as a freshman at Oklahoma and threw for 2,018 yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. However, he landed at Sam Houston State after being dismissed from the Sooners for a “job” he held with a car dealership owned by an Oklahoma booster. He posted solid numbers in his first year as a starter at FCS Sam Houston State and enters the year as the top small school quarterback prospect.
2. Third-year sophomore skill position players
Moreno, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, Oklahoma running back DeMarco Murray, Pittsburgh running back LeSean McCoy and Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree all have the talent to have big enough seasons that warrant leaving early for the draft. It’s unlikely that more than two of these guys actually make the jump, as, outside of Larry Fitzgerald, few have made a successful move after just two years of college game action.
But, as freshmen, Bradford led the nation in passing efficiency, Moreno, Murray and McCoy combined for 41 rushing touchdowns, and Crabtree caught 22 touchdowns and came up 38 yards short of 2,000 for the season.
Out of the five, Crabtree is probably the most likely to leave early, especially if he duplicates his freshman season numbers.
3. The Clemson running backs
In 2005, Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams from Auburn both not only went in the first round, but in the top five. This year, both Darren McFadden and Felix Jones from Arkansas went in the first round. In 2009, for the third time in five years, it would not be surprising to see a tandem of tailbacks from one school go in the first round, with Clemson’s James Davis and C.J. Spiller.
The Davis-Spiller combination was actually more productive in 2006 than 2007, as Spiller went through a bit of a sophomore slump early in the season. But Clemson is armed with what could turn out to be the ACC’s best passing offense and rushing offense behind Harper at quarterback, Aaron Kelly at receiver and Spiller and Davis in the backfield.
Spiller is undersized as a prospect and must show that he is capable of running between the tackles, but he may be the most explosive back in the country. If he can improve his inside game, he could leave early and find himself in the first round mix with Davis, who is the top senior running back prospect.
4. Injuries
Penn State linebacker Sean Lee, thought of us a potential 2009 first round pick, tore his ACL in spring practice and will redshirt this season, taking him out of the 2009 draft mix.
On the other side of things, Boston College will receive a boost from the return of linebacker Brian Toal, who missed the 2007 season because of shoulder surgery. If he can stay healthy, Toal could once again emerge as one of the top linebackers in the draft. But shoulder problems will always raise a red flag for a linebacker prospect.
Another play who is trying to erase durability questions is Florida’s all-purpose junior Percy Harvin. It’s hard to imagine what Harvin would be doing at Florida if he didn’t have so many injury issues, as he was hampered by heel, knee, hip and ankle problems. The most significant injury has been a nagging heel problem, which has been an issue since high school, and he underwent heel surgery in early April.
5. The USC defense
In April, 10 Trojans were drafted - five offensive players and five defensive players. Sedrick Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, Keith Rivers and Terrell Thomas all went on day one, with Thomas Williams getting picked up in the fifth round.
Nine USC seniors are on New Era Scouting’s initial 300-player board. Seven of those players - Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Fili Moala, Kevin Ellison, Josh Pinkard, Kyle Moore and Cary Harris - are on defense, with all but Harris in the top 100. The nation’s second ranked defense in 2007 is sure to be near the top again in 2008, and with so many pro prospects, it isn’t too hard to see why.
And don’t forget junior Taylor Mays, a 6-4, 225-pound safety who could be the top safety prospect if he leaves early.
Questions or comments? E-mail me at mattbrown@newerascouting.com.