Winning Against The Odds
by A.J. McKnight
AJ McKnight will be breaking down every NFL’s teams total number of wins this season. First up is the AFC East.
Every year, oddsmakers come out with win totals for every team in the NFL. Typically, the over/under for most teams is anywhere between 7 and 9. It’s a fun bet to follow throughout the season, and can often provide a some chances to hedge and take guaranteed profits. The idea is to find overhyped teams with difficult inter-divisional matchups and underhyped teams with easy inter-divisional matchups. One example of the latter is found in the AFC East. On with the predictions.
AFC East
Out-of-division opponents: AFC West, NFC West
New England Patriots
Prediction: UNDER 12.5 wins (-120)
To say that this is a knock on the Patriots would be wrong. They figure to be strong again in 2008. It’s just that nobody can know what to expect out of this team. They may suffer from the typical Super Bowl hangover, or they could take their frustrations out on their opponents like last year. Plus, it’s not like 12-4 is a bad season by any stretch. Even though it’s the highest over/under total I can personally recall, there is no need to risk too much betting against the best franchise in the business.
Confidence: 1 of 5
Buffalo Bills
Prediction: OVER 7.5 wins (-150)
After the Patriots, the division looks rather soft. With a rather soft pair of divisions to be played, one of the other three teams figures to come out of the season with at least a .500 record. The bet here is that it’s the Bills. With a solid young offensive line and a young defense led by Donte Whitner, this team could win three or four games in the division and break even on the other ten, which would put them at eight or nine wins. One of the best bets on the board.
Confidence: 5 of 5
New York Jets
Prediction: UNDER 7.5 wins (-110)
While they may have spent a lot of money in the offseason, it won’t dramatically improve their play in 2008. Alan Faneca, Damien Woody and Calvin Pace were all big-money additions. Vernon Gholston was added in the first round of the draft. All of these players bring with them inherent risks. It’s hard to see each move panning out for the team. That, along with another season of a quarterback controversey, will keep the Jets under .500 for another season.
Confidence: 3 of 5
Miami Dolphins
Prediction: UNDER 5.5 wins (-115)
The oddsmakers have the total here listed as a coin flip, with a price of -115 on either side, which is rather surprising. Make no mistake, the Dolphins were bad last year. However, they weren’t 1-15 bad. Still, it’s hard to see them improving by five games under head coach Tony Sporano. If they win two games within the division it’d be considered a success, and several of their “winnable” inter-division games are on the road.
Confidence: 4 of 5