NCAA Power Rankings
by Matt Brown
Georgia is No. 1 in the AP and Coaches’ Polls, a Big 12 squad leads the pack in the preseason edition of the New Era Scouting college football power rankings.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
With all the talk about Big 12 quarterbacks, Sam Bradford doesn’t seem to be getting enough attention. All he did as a freshman was lead the nation in passing efficiency and throw 36 touchdown passes. The Sooners boast the nation’s best offensive line and the conference’s top defensive line and are loaded with talent at the skill positions. Sophomore tailback DeMarco Murray had 764 yards and 13 touchdowns while splitting time with Allen Patrick and Chris Brown. With Patrick gone, look for Murray to have a huge season and maybe get into the Heisman mix.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Most of the nation is rooting against Ohio State after two straight embarrassments in the BCS National Championship game, but this squad could be better than both of those. With 18 starters returning, the Buckeyes are loaded. Tailback Chris Wells is a Heisman frontrunner, Alex Boone anchors a very strong offensive line and James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins lead a star-studded defense. If quarterback Todd Boeckman manages games like he did in the first half of 2007, the Buckeyes have a very good chance of getting back to the title game.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Injuries and off-the-field problems have taken their toll on the Bulldogs. Left tackle Trinton Sturdivant is out for the year after tearing ligaments in his knee, and while suspensions for off-the-field issues may not have a big effect on results, the offseason has not been kind to a team that is the national title favorite of many. Even with the problems, Georgia has the nation’s No. 2 running back (Knowshon Moreno), a potential No. 1 overall pick at quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and a good all-around defense anchored by the tackle combination of Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins.
4. Florida Gators
The 2008 season for the Gators rests upon the shoulders of the defense. They ranked last in the SEC in pass defense last year and eighth in scoring defense. Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow will once again put up huge numbers at quarterback, the all-purpose Percy Harvin will be even better if he is finally healthy and the running back situation should be much better with Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody now in the mix. Youth was an excuse for the defense last year, but now, eight starters return and the pass defense must improve for the Gators to live up to expectations.
5. USC Trojans
The amount of talent that Pete Carroll has stockpiled at quarterback and running back is mind-blowing, but somehow there are slight concerns about the positions. The status of expected starting quarterback Mark Sanchez is in question after he dislocated his knee cap. If he cannot play in the opener, it will be up to either Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain or redshirt freshman Aaron Corp. At tailback, Joe McKnight has missed practice time with injuries to his fingers and elbow, but he is not expected to miss any game time. Of course, if he cannot play, former blue chip recruits Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable, Marc Tyler and Broderick Green will all be ready to contribute.
6. Missouri Tigers
After a breakout 2007 campaign, the only real question for Missouri is at running back, where Derrick Washington, Jimmy Jackson and De’Vion Moore will try to replace Tony Temple. Quarterback Chase Daniel, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, tight end Chase Coffman, free safety William Moore and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon are all among the best in the country at their respective positions. The talent level is clearly up in Columbia, and there is no reason to expect anything less than another Big 12 North division title in 2008.
7. Clemson Tigers
In a weak ACC, Clemson is the clear favorite, but many still have their doubts about whether or not the Tigers can live up to expectations for once. The losses of four starters on the offensive line are obviously a big concern, but the Tigers have incredible talent at the skill positions with quarterback Cullen Harper, running backs James Davis and C.J. Spiller and wide receivers Aaron Kelly and Jacoby Ford. A win over Alabama at the Georgia Dome on Saturday and there is little doubt that the Tigers will be 5-0 heading into a Thursday night showdown at Wake Forest on Oct. 9.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers
Even without head coach Rich Rodriguez and running back Steve Slaton, this is still the best team in the Big East. Quarterback Pat White is one of the most dynamic players in college football history and is the NCAA’s active career leader in rushing yards, while tailback Noel Devine averaged 8.6 yards per carry last year and is capable of a big play on every touch. The loss of seven starters on the nation’s No. 7 ranked total defense is a problem, but even with a little bit of a drop-off on defense, the Mountaineers can out-score just about anyone if White stays healthy.
9. LSU Tigers
The loss of quarterback Ryan Perrilloux is a big one, especially since no one is sure how effective Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch can be. Running back Keiland Williams needs to step up and take pressure off of whoever the quarterback is. Defensively, just five starters return, but the Tigers could be every bit as good as last year. Even with the loss of tackle Glenn Dorsey, the defensive line is the nation’s best with Kirston Pittman, Ricky Jean-Francois, Marlon Favorite and Tyson Jackson. The young secondary is a potential weakness, but there is a lot of talent there, and the group will benefit from a strong pass rush up front.
10. Texas Longhorns
Quarterback Colt McCoy threw for 3,303 yards and 22 touchdowns last year, but his 18 interceptions were a big disappointment after throwing just seven as a freshman in 2006. With the departure of Jamaal Charles at tailback, McCoy needs to regain his freshman form and cut down on the mistakes. The key to the season could be the pass defense, as the Longhorns finished 109th last year, allowing 277.8 yards per game. Senior cornerback Ryan Palmer is the only returning starter in the secondary. Texas is hoping that new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who was lured from Auburn, can reshape the unit.
11. Auburn Tigers
New offensive coordinator Tony Franklin showed off his version of the spread offense in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl win over Clemson, and now a lot of attention is being paid to the progress of his system with a full offseason of practices to work with. Kodi Burns saw action as a runner in the bowl game, but he has yet to separate himself from Chris Todd for the starting quarterback job. With nine starters returning on offense, Franklin has talent to work with, but a quarterback must emerge.
12. Arizona State Sun Devils
Rudy Carpenter threw for 3,202 yards and 25 touchdowns last year and the Sun Devils went 10-3, and that was with an offensive line that allowed a Pac-10-worst 4.2 sacks per game. It’s hard to imagine the line not improving at least a little bit. The key for the Sun Devils is a six-week, four-game stretch in the middle of the year with homes games against Georgia and Oregon, two bye weeks and consecutive road trips to Cal and USC squeezed between. They should be favored in all of the games before and after that brutal stretch.
13. Tennessee Volunteers
With all the hype that Florida and Georgia are receiving, it seems to be forgotten that Tennessee won the SEC East title last year. While the Vols must replace quarterback Erik Ainge, junior Jonathan Compton has solid experience and could end up being one of the top quarterbacks in the conference, behind Tebow and Stafford. The rest of the offense should be very good with veteran tailback Arian Foster, star wide receiver Lucas Taylor and the conference’s best line. The pressure is on the defense to improve upon the 27.3 points per game it allowed in 2007.
14. South Florida Bulls
USF reached as high as No. 2 last year before faltering with consecutive losses to Rutgers, Connecticut and Cincinnati. The Bulls played poorly in the Sun Bowl against Oregon, but they have the talent to make some noise on the national level again. Linebacker Ben Moffitt and cornerbacks Trae Williams and Mike Jenkins are huge losses, but otherwise, nearly the entire team returns. That includes All-American defensive end George Selvie and playmaking quarterback Matt Grothe.
15. BYU Cougars
BYU is the most popular pick for a non-BCS team to crash the BCS party, and with good reason. The Cougars will be tested by Utah in the Mountain West, but they should be very difficult to stop on offense. The Cougars are loaded at the skill positions with quarterback Max Hall (3,848 yards), running back Harvey Unga (1,227 yards) and receivers Austin Collie (946 yards) and Dennis Pitta (813 yards). Hall is protected by an absolutely massive starting offensive line that averages more than 325 pounds.
16. Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks were the Cinderella story of 2007, finishing with a 12-1 record and an Orange Bowl win against Virginia Tech. But last year’s schedule did not include Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech, and all three are back on the schedule this year. Add in a trip to USF and the annual Border War with Missouri, and it will be extremely difficult for Kansas to match last year’s success. But Mark Mangino is a terrific coach, and he has quarterback Todd Reesing and 14 other starters back. Another BCS bid is unlikely, but a nine-win regular season is very reachable.
17. Wisconsin Badgers
While the Badgers will have to be ready in a trap game at Fresno State on Sept. 13, the schedule sets up very well, with the three toughest opponents (Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois) all traveling to Madison. Seventeen starters return to the squad, although a quarterback must be replaced once again with the loss of Tyler Donovan. Former Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge has some experience, and like usual with Wisconsin quarterbacks, his job will be to not lose games. The offense will continue to revolve around powerful junior running back P.J. Hill and passes to the nation’s top tight end, Travis Beckum.
18. Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions defense took some big hits in the off season, as, on top of the graduation of linebacker Dan Connor, cornerback Justin King left early, linebacker Sean Lee tore his ACL, defensive tackle Devon Still broke his leg and defensive tackles Chris Baker and Phil Taylor were thrown off the team. The depth is certainly not what it was expected to be, but there is still plenty of talent in the group, led by star end Maurice Evans. On offense, the entire line and receiving corps are back, while Evan Royster and Stephfon Green have the potential to be a very productive tandem in the backfield. Daryll Clark and Pat Devlin are continuing to fight for the quarterback job, with Clark likely having the edge to replace the much-maligned Anthony Morelli.
19. Virginia Tech Hokies
The quarterback situation appears to be solid in Blacksburg, with senior Sean Glennon and athletic sophomore Tyrod Taylor splitting time once again. Glennon struggled early on in 2007 but really improved in the second half of the season. The problems lie with the surrounding talent, as running back Branden Ore was kicked off the team and the top four receivers are gone. Projected starting receiver Zach Luckett has also been suspended indefinitely. Thankfully for the Hokies, cornerback Victor Harris decided to return after flirting with turning pro. There are a lot of holes to fill, but the Hokies still are the team to beat in the ACC Coastal division.
20. Illinois Fighting Illini
Despite a rout at the hands of USC in the Rose Bowl, the 2007 season was certainly a huge success for the Illini. If running back Rashard Mendenhall had decided to return for his senior season, Illinois would be a borderline top-10 team. Now, quarterback Juice Williams must prove that he can be a complete player. He showed the ability to be a successful passer against Ohio State but has not proved consistency yet. Ron Zook has recruited some phenomenal talent to Champaign though, including emerging star Arrelious Benn at wide receiver and All-American cornerback Vontae Davis.
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Many people are anointing 2008 as the breakout season for Mike Leach’s Red Raiders. Eighteen starters are back, including 5,705-yard passer Graham Harrell and record-setting wide receiver Michael Crabtree. The talent is obviously there, but how much better is Harrell than previous statistically-successful quarterbacks like Sonny Cumbie and Kliff Kingsbury? Texas Tech has not had a double-digit season since 1976, and while they will surely cruise their way through another laugher of a non-conference schedule (not one, but two 1-AA opponents), it is difficult to see them overtaking both Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12 South.
22. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide ended the 2007 regular season on a disastrous four-game slide, with losses to LSU, Mississippi State, Louisiana-Monroe and Auburn. While beating Colorado was not a huge accomplishment in the Independence Bowl, it at least got some momentum going back in the positive direction for Nick Saban. Saban has recruited very well, and Alabama should start turning things around this season. True freshman wide receiver Julio Jones is expected to make a major impact, and he will need to, as quarterback John Parker Wilson loses his top three receiving targets. With road trips to Georgia, Tennessee and LSU, a division title is very unlikely, but a nine-win regular season is possible thanks to a strong offensive line and a solid running game.
23. Oregon Ducks
In the absence of the injured Dennis Dixon, Justin Roper tossed four touchdown passes to help lead the Ducks to a rout of USF in the Sun Bowl. But now, Roper (or Nathan Costa), will be without tailback James Stewart in the backfield when he takes over the full-time starting job. All Stewart did last year was rush for 1,722 yards, including 253 yards in the bowl game. Even with the losses, the Ducks have the talent elsewhere to remain a top 25 team. The secondary is the Pac-10’s best, while the offensive line is also a productive group.
24. Michigan State Spartans
Coach Mark Dantonio led the Spartans to their first bowl bid since 2003 last year and clearly has them on the upswing. One-half of a dangerous running back tandem is gone (Jehuu Caulcrick, who scored 21 touchdowns), but senior Javon Ringer is one of the best runners in the country and should have an even bigger year now that he’s not splitting carries. While quarterback Brian Hoyer can be erratic at times, he can be an effective passer who gives balance to the offense. The Spartans won’t contend for a Big Ten title or a BCS bowl, but they should continue to build and surpass last year’s win total of seven.
25. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons are far from flashy and never sit atop recruiting lists, but Jim Grobe has proven to be a coach who can do more with less. That’s not to say that there are no stars on this team, as Alphonso Smith is one of the nation’s top cornerbacks and running back Josh Adams had a terrific freshman season last year. But Wake Forest won nine games last year despite ranking 93rd in the nation in total offense. Quarterback Riley Skinner completed 72.4 percent of his passes last year, so if he can improve upon his lackluster 12-13 touchdown-interception ratio, the Demon Deacons could be even better than last year.
E-mail questions or comments to mattbrown@newerascouting.com