Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Fives Are Wild

by Matt Miller

By Clark Rucker

Now that the bowl season has come and gone, it is time for the final edition of Fives are Wild. The bowls were the last opportunity for many draft eligible players to showcase their wares on the field as most of the draft analysis going forward will hinge on combine and pro-day workouts and film study. Here are some of the more significant post-bowl thoughts regarding these wannabe-NFLers.

5 NFL Draft Stock Risers:

1. Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU: Jackson has had a very up and down season, and he spent time as a ?draft stock faller? in Fives are Wild earlier this year. Maybe more than any other draft eligible player on the field in the BCS National Championship Game, Jackson needed a big performance to boost his sinking draft stock. He got what he needed. Jackson shut down Brett Hartline and Brian Robiskie and essentially eliminated and receiving threat on his side of the field. LSU’s relies on its corners to play tight man-to-man coverage in order for its defensive scheme to succeed, and over the second half of the season, Jackson and fellow corner Jonathan Zenon struggled in their assignments. It is no coincidence that on a night where Jackson and Zenon played some of their best football that the LSU defense returned to its dominant form. Jackson has good size, good man-to-man coverage skills, and is an adequate tackler. Look for him to go in the third round, instead of the fifth or sixth where he was projected before the game.
2. Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC: Maualuga was the most dominant player on the field in USC’s Rose Bowl match-up versus Illinois. After posting 4 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 interception and 1 forced fumble, Maualuga may have established himself as a top-15 pick in the 2009 draft and the best linebacker in the nation. Maualuga has always held a reputation as one of the hardest hitters in college football, but his full skill set was on display in the Rose Bowl, as he showed great coverage and pass rushing skills as well. After already stating that he plans to return to USC in 2008, Maualuga has to be a favorite for the Butkus Award.
3. Marcus Howard, DE, Georiga: Howard has not been the most consistent performer at defensive end for the Bulldogs over the last two seasons, but everything seemed to click over the last half of 2007 and in the Sugar Bowl versus Hawaii, where he posted 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 touchdown. For the season, Howard posted 41 tackles, 10.5 sacks, and 11.5 tackles for loss. Howard is slightly undersized to be a full-time defensive end at 6′2?, 250 pounds, so he may move to a hybrid DE/LB role in the NFL. Luckily for Howard, he began his college career at linebacker, so a move back to this position would not be foreign to him. As more NFL teams move towards the 3-4 defense, Howard’s versatility and pass-rush skills will be in high demand. Entering 2007, Howard may have been a sixth or seventh round pick, but after his breakthrough second half of the season, he projects to be a fourth round pick.
4. Curtis Painter, QB, Purdue: Painter’s bowl performance versus Central Michigan (546 yards passing, 3 touchdowns) establishes him as one of the top five quarterback prospects in the 2009 NFL Draft. At 6′4?, 225 pounds with above average arm strength, Painter has all of the measureables that scouts seek in NFL-caliber quarterbacks. Painter has also had the benefit of playing in a sophisticated passing offense that requires him to make multiple reads and call plenty of audibles at the line of scrimmage. Entering 2008, Painter needs to work on his accuracy and bring it more towards 67 percent, as opposed to his current career rate of 58%. Expect Painter and Purdue to light up the Big Ten in 2008 and Painter to be a potential first round draft pick.
5. Tony Temple, RB, Missouri: Temple broke the Cotton Bowl record for rushing yards with his 281 yard, 4 touchdown performance and boosted his draft stock from a potentially undrafted free agent to a fifth or sixth round pick. Temple is on the diminutive side at 5′9? 200 pounds, but he possesses great speed and vision that more than compensate for his lack of size. Temple shows amazing burst and he completely baffled a stout Arkansas defense. Temple projects to be a third down back in the NFL due to his size and receiving skills. The only concern about Temple circles around his injury history, as he has missed multiple games over the past two seasons due to various nagging injuries.

5 NFL Draft Stock Fallers:

1. Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State: Barton looked like a first day draft pick after the 2006 season, and he began the 2007 season strong. There were always concerns about his lack of athleticism and pure strength, and after being dominated by the LSU front four in the BCS National Championship Game, these concerns are more prevalent than ever before. Barton needs a good showing in post season all-star games and in his combine workouts to resuscitate his flailing draft stock. If he cannot show well, he could fall into the fifth round.
2. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas: as NFL teams have increasingly looked for elite athletes at the tight end position, Finley may be the most athletic tight end available in the 2008 Draft. However, Finley is still incredibly raw and a team drafting him will be drafting based on potential rather than production. While it is true Finley had a decent 2007 season that saw him post over 500 yards receiving, it remains that Finley is also very inconsistent. There are games in which he can utterly dominate opposing defenses as shown in Texas’ game versus Oklahoma in 2007, but there are other games where he disappears (see Kansas State, Arizona State). At 6′5?, 240 pounds with projected 4.5 speed, Finley possesses the most intriguing size/speed ratio of any draft-eligible tight end, but any team drafting him should not expect an immediate return on its investment. Even more concerning is Finley’s lack of blocking aptitude, as he will be asked to help block in the NFL more than he was a Texas. Finley will likely be a third or fourth round pick, but another season at Texas that would have allowed him to further mature physically and mentally would have catapulted him to the late first round or early second, which in monetary terms is a matter of millions.
3. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia: Slaton began 2007 as a Heisman frontrunner and arguably the best running back in the nation. He ended the 2007 season surrounded by questions about the disappearance of his speed, inability to stay on the field, and he now may be the second of third best NFL draft prospect in his own backfield. Slaton missed most of the Mountaineers’ bowl game versus Oklahoma with an injury, and he missed parts of several other games during the 2007 season due to nagging injuries. Once projected as a potential first round pick, Slaton now looks like a third or fourth rounder. As such, he would be best served by returning to school for his senior season to show scouts that he can once again be a dominant college running back.
4. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Hawaii’s Sugar Bowl matchup versus Georgia was circled by many scouts who wanted to see if Brennan was truly an elite quarterback prospect or just another ?product of the system? who would fail against top-tier talent. These same scouts left the Sugar Bowl full of uncertainty about the NFL abilities of Brennan, as he struggled against a fast Georgia defense more so than he had at any other point in his college career. Brennan looked confused and flustered the entire game, and after throwing three interceptions, Brennan has moved from a potential top fifteen pick to a likely second rounder.
5. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech: Ellis is an undersized defensive end who many project to be a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL, and his value in the NFL will be his pass rushing skills. After dominating the ACC for most of the 2007 season, Ellis looked completely helpless against Kansas’ Anthony Collins in the Orange Bowl. Consequentially, his draft stock has taken a big hit, as his explosiveness looked absent and his lack of strength became very apparent. Ellis needs a strong showing this offseason to reinvigorate his draft stock, as he has fallen from a third round pick to a likely fifth or sixth rounder.

5 Storylines Heading into 2008:

1. USC Quarterback Battle: the departure of John David Booty to graduation opens up the door to one of the most intriguing quarterback derbies in recent memory. Mark Sanchez is a former five star high school player who many anointed as the next Heisman winner from USC from the moment he stepped on campus. He possesses elite size and arm strength and has more athleticism than Booty and his predecessor Matt Leinart. Mitch Mustain, the heralded Arkansas quarterback who transferred to USC last year, was the top recruit in the nation in 2006 and while smaller than Sanchez, possesses great size and has played in a sophisticated passing offense for over six years. The winner of this battle will immediately step into the national spotlight and will be a Heisman favorite over the next couple of seasons. Look for Sanchez to win the battle in August and pending a great 2008 season, leave the Trojans early for the NFL.
2. Texas Running Back Situation: midseason, many around the Texas football team believed that it was poised for a big run in 2008, aided by the arm of Colt McCoy and the legs of Jamaal Charles. Over the course of the second half of the season, Charles exploded onto the national scene, as he finished in the top ten in the nation in rushing yards and showed a physicality to his running style that had not previously been seen. Charles has since declared for the 2008 draft, giving up his senior year of eligibility, and as a result, Texas is looking at entering 2008 with a running back by committee approach, led by Vondrell McGee, Chris Ogbonnaya, Fozzy Whittaker, Antwan Cobb, Jeremy Hills, and Tre Newton. McGee looks to be the favorite to win a majority of the carries, but he does not posses the game changing abilities that Charles has. One thing to look for though is the commitment of top-rated high school running back Darrell Scott, who at 6′0, 215 pounds, has been heralded as the next Adrian Peterson. Scott currently lists Texas and Colorado as his leaders, and if Texas can gain his abilities in its backfield, the departure of Charles may be quickly dismissed.
3. Michigan’s Coaching Change: the arrival of Rich Rodriquez to Ann Arbor should bring a drastic change in the Wolverines’ offensive philosophy, as Rodriquez will look to implement his spread-option offense. Michigan has always been a pro-style offensive team, so this coaching/philoshpy change will have far reaching effects on recruiting at the school as well as recruiting nationwide. The impact of this coaching change has already been felt before a game has even been played, as heralded pocket-passer Ryan Mallet has decided to transfer, while Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham have decided to enter the NFL Draft early. The departure of Mallet hurts the most, as it leaves Michigan without a proven quarterback for the 2008 season. Look for top-rated dual threat quarterback Terrell Pryor to commit to Michigan and have every opportunity to be the starting quarterback at the outset of 2008.
4. Oregon Quarterback Uncertainty: once Dennis Dixon went down with his ACL injury against Arizona, the fortunes and offensive consistency of the Ducks tanked as well. The spread offense that the Ducks employ suffered greatly without a proven trigger man, and as a result, the team went from BCS shoe-in to a fourth place finish in the Pac 10. Justin Roper looks to be the likely frontrunner for the starting job entering 2008, but this could change drastically depending on the outcome of recruiting, as the aforementioned Terrell Pryor also lists Oregon as a finalist for this college choice.
5. Florida = Loaded: Florida finished the 2007 season with a disappointing 9-4 finish, but heads are not down in Gainesville, as Florida enters 2008 as quite possibly to most talented team in the nation. Florida returns every offensive starter except for Andre Caldwell and potentially Cornelius Ingram, and also returns every defensive starter except for Tony Joiner and Derrick Harvey. With another offseason under their belts, look for some of the younger players to make a big impact in 2008 and for Florida to challenge for the BCS National Championship.

5 Players to Watch in 2008:

1. Emmanuel Moody, RB, Florida: Moody transferred to Florida from USC before the beginning of the 2007 season, and after spending this season redshirting per NCAA policy, he enters 2008 as the penciled-in starting running back for the Gators explosive spread offense. The Gators need Moody to capitalize on his immense talent, as it will allow Percy Harvin to return to his more traditional wide receiver slot and also allow Tim Tebow to shoulder less of the rushing load. Moody was the second leading rusher for the Trojans in 2006 and expect a great season from him in 2008. Look for 1100 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns in 2008.
2. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: Wells may have been the most explosive player on the field in the BCS National Championship game, which is saying a lot since the Buckeyes faced what many believe to be the most athletic team in the country. Wells has always been known for his physical running style, but his speed has been on display all season. If he can post a season equal to his 2007 season, expect Wells to declare for the NFL Draft early and be a top-15 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
3. Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech: Harrell is often overlooked on the national scene due to Texas Tech’s status as a second tier Big 12 team and the ?system? label that is attached to all of the previous Texas Tech quarterbacks. Harrell is a different animal from his predecessors however, as he possesses legitimate NFL ability and is one of the most fierce competitors in college football. Harrell should enter 2008 as a Heisman frontrunner, and if he can continue to post the videogame-like numbers he has posted over the last two seasons, he should be sitting in New York for the Heisman Trophy Ceremony. Furthermore, Harrell will be one of the top five or so quarterback prospects for the 2009 Draft.
4. Sean Lee, LB, Penn State: it is now Lee’s turn to assume the role of heralded Penn State linebacker and he will look to bring even more hardware to University Park. Just like his predecessors Paul Posluszny and Dan Connor, Lee has all of the measurables that make NFL scouts drool and he will likely content with Maualuga as the top linebacker available in the 2009 Draft.
5. Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia: Stafford arrived at Georgia with a load of expectations, and after two seasons, he has delivered what many believed he would. After a rough freshman season, Stafford led the Bulldogs to at BCS bowl win over Hawaii and Georgia now enters 2008 as a frontrunner for next year’s national championship. With a stellar running game to support him and an emerging group of wide receivers, expect Stafford to have an exponential growth in his statistical performance in 2008. If he can continue his winning ways while improving his individual performance, Stafford could be a top ten pick in 2009 or 2010, depending on if he decides to declare early for the NFL Draft.

If you have any questions or comments, please send an email to clark@newerascouting.com.