Mock Drafts: Who Cares?
by Matt Miller
NFL teams amaze us each year with bone-headed picks and selections later to be labeled as busts. But why are so many in the media impressed with a “draft expert” who can correctly guess four or five picks right? We have no idea.
In the 2007 NFL Draft we at New Era Scouting were covering our first NFL Draft. In running a draft site, or scouting service, people flock to mock drafts first and foremost. In fact, our mock drafts are always the most popular page on the website. When New Era Scouting was founded, my belief was that a mock draft should be an attempt to predict what would happen on draft weekend, but what should happen. We do not strive to guess which picks the NFL teams will mess up, or who will be a bust in three years. We collect information, compile individually scouting reports and analyze team needs to conclude what positions a team must improve at, what schemes and systems they are running and finally which college players fit that need. It’s not as simple as the Dolphins need a cornerback, let’s give them the top guy on the board.
This is a topic today because of a good article from our friend’s at Pro Football Talk, which is found here. In this Mike Florio talks about the misleading of draft eligible players by people calling themselves a scout or expert. There’s another good write up here.
And we agree. Media outlets should hold their talking heads accountable, but each person should also come clean. Are they trying to predict what will happen, or are they scouting and projecting what would happen? I wouldn’t bet my career or website on the draft choices of Jerry Angelo, so what he does in rounds one through seven mean little to me. What matters to New Era Scouting, and our readers, is what the team should do.
This is not to say we will discontinue mock drafts, in fact we must do a better job of scouting and analyzing team needs. No one is confident enough to say we’re making better picks than NFL teams, but history alone will make that clear.