Stretching the Field: Bad Advice
by Luke Paul Chandler
The Draft has come and gone, but the effect of some underclassmen’s decisions still linger.
It’s no shock that the NFL Draft will inevitably end up having it’s fair share of undrafted rookies. Some, like the late Johnny Unitas, go on to Hall of Fame careers. For some they get their cup of tea and move on. While it’s never fun to watch a player goundrafted, it’s even more troubling when it’s a player who declared for the draft early.
The NFL has seen an increase in this problem the past few draft classes. In the 2007 NFL Draft, Darius Walker of Notre Dame saw him stock go from solid third round pick to undrafted free agent. Walker was the poster boy for an NFL system that doesn’t always pay off for those who gamble. Walker has decent gig now as a backup on the Houston Texans, but he’s never going to recoup the money he lost by forgoing his senior season of eligibility. The ultimate responsibility lies with the athlete for choosing to leave early, but the high profile awareness of players goingundrafted now has to be a cause for concern. Too many underclassmen are receiving bad grades from the Advisory Committee, which are putting their livelihood in danger.
Too often players are getting bad advice from the Advisory Committee, which is made up of NFL general managers and personnel executives. The players receive a round grade, a comment, and advice on whether to stay or declare. At one time, the round grades given were accurate usually within 15-20 picks, or a half round. Often the grade itself is going to give a guy the go ahead he needs to declare, so that’s why this process is so delicate. The more glaring misses lately have given some concern that this process isn’t as accurate as it used to be.
A great example of this is former Bowling Green quarterback Omar Jacobs. Jacobs had a hot sophomore season, and entered into this junior year drawing comparisons to then Minnesota Viking Daunte Culpepper. Jacobs had a huge arm, but then suffered an injury to his non throwing shoulder, which caused his production to slip considerably. On cue, Jacobs petitioned the Advisory Committee after the 2005 season, and was given a fourth round grade and advised to stay in school. He declared anyways, hoping to build up his draft stock. He was promptly drafted in the fifth round of the 2006 NFL Draft, and has never thrown an NFL regular season pass. He currently plays in the American Indoor Football League, with the Florence Phantoms. At the age of 24, Jacobs has no chance of reviving his once promising NFL career.
Looking at this season, the highest rated underclassmen to feel the wrath of his grade was Maryland inside linebacker Erin Henderson. Henderson, who had battled injuries all season, received a second round grade, but was also advised against declaring. Henderson wentundrafted this past weekend, despite having the kind of physical skills NFL general managers love at the evolving middle linebacker position. While Henderson has battled injuries this year, all reports were that he was healthy enough to play this season. So where was the breakdown here? It seems that the once flawless Advisory Committee Grade gave false draft stock hope to a player who realistically wasn’t ready to play in the NFL anyways.
Joining Henderson on that list was former Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham. Manningham’s talent is big, and rumors are it’s just as big as his ego. While no one could have predicted the issues that preceded him involved with his lying about marijuana use and failed tests, he still received a Top 10 Grade this season, with the recommendation that he leave since he’s the “…top receiver in the draft if he declares.” Manningham’s admission of marijuana use was far from the only thing that drove his value down, but his assessment had many holes. On many levels, the assessment given of Manningham was flawed. He was not far away above any of the other top receivers in this class, unlike his advice stated. Coupled that with a Top 10 grade, in a year when no receiver went in the first round alone. Hindsight is always 20-20, but this move just stinks of horrible evaluation of talent. Manningham ended up the 14th wide receiver taken, at the end of the third round by the New York Giants. The Giants depth at wide receiver was not an issue either, so this pick theoretically rescued him from an even bigger fall.
Another issue challenging the Advisory Committee is the mid to later round prospects. A player like Darren McFadden is an easy evaluation, but not so much in the case of a guy like Chilo Rachal of Southern California. Rachal was not a well known player this season, despite playing at powerhouse Southern California. Rachal received a fourth round grade at the time his papers were filed. He had made the decision to declare no matter what, due to issues with the health of his mother. Rachal then went as a second round pick, number thirty-nine overall, to the 49ers. In a case like this, it seems silly to point out the variance in the grade and the draft stock, but what if Rachal had gone back to Southern California for his final season and suffered a catastrophic injury that derailed his career permanently?
It appears more and more that the Advisory Committee’s opinions and influence are starting to mirror that of the agents that players use to represent them. They sound more of a public relations campaign than an unbiased opinion. While the system does still work in some ways, the league must be more careful with the way they are advising and shifting these young players careers. For some of them, this assessment is the make or break before going back to a senior season of college. The Advisory Committee has the lives of young men in their hands, and giving it extra attention is key.
Contact Luke at Luke@newerascouting.com.