Risers and Fallers
by Luke Paul Chandler
Dave Syvertsen tells us which players will rise and fall this weekend at the 2008 NFL Draft.
Every year, the same thing happens and for some reason the same people are surprised time after time. The armchair general managers and Mel Kipers of the world project a player to go much higher or in some cases much lower than anticipated.
The second that one of these draft “experts” project a player to take a leap up their draft board, the internet-wide hype settles in and results with a player becoming vastly overrated. An example would be last year with Dwayne Jarrett and his drop toward the second half of round two after months of those “experts” tagging him as a surefire first-round pick. And then there are always the prospects that fly under the radar and surprise those that failed to notice the production on tape to go along with the above average workout numbers. Donte Whitner in 2006 comes to mind when thinking over that particular scenario. So who are the fallers and risers of the 2008 class?
RISERS
James Hardy - WR - Indiana
A recent conversation with a Big 12 quarterbacks coach has portrayed Hardy as a guy to watch for on draft day. The game tape on this kid is scary-good and when you think about how much NFL coaches are searching for players that possess the tools to create matchup problems, Hardy immediately comes to mind. At nearly 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds with hands that resemble that of an offensive lineman’s on top of his sub 4.5 speed, Hardy has Plaxico Burress written all over him. He is not just a physical gem however, as he dominated the Big 10 defensive backs the past two years proving to be a top-notch red zone target. Many have projected him as a second-round prospect but that gauntlet of teams that will be looking for a wide receiver from pick 18 (Houston) down to 24 (Tennessee) is an area Hardy should go.
Roy Schuening - G - Oregon State
Who? The versatile Oregon State guard was arguably the reason the Beavers running game had surges of strength in 2006 and 2007. The versatile big ugly can do it all in the trenches such as take a defensive tackle head on and drive him out of the play, move laterally while chipping a linemen and reaching the second level with quickness, pull with speed and lead block for a back, as well as stick with the quickest of pass rushers whether it’s an end or tackle. With the increased value NFL teams have placed in guards the past couple of years, Schuening should be a top-40 pick on Saturday. No he won’t challenge Branden Albert for the top guard spot, but if he does end up going in the top 10, there is a very good shot Schuening sneaks his way into the first round considering the amount of teams that need help with their offensive line.
Curtis Lofton - LB - Oklahoma
There are two teams toward the end of round one showing interest in Lofton and it’s likely the 2007 Big 12 defensive player of the year won’t fall past pick No. 31. Who are the two teams? Nobody knows but one would have to think it’s between the Titans, Chargers, Niners, Cowboys and Giants. Lofton’s versatility and consistent level of production has the caught the eye of those teams that need the reliability at the second level. He is not the combine freak that appears in every draft preview you read out there but Lofa Tatupu, DeMeco Ryans and David Harris all proved that the instincts and tackling ability Lofton has should not be overlooked. Lofton brings everything to the table you want a linebacker to and some.
FALLERS
Jerod Mayo - LB - Tennessee
Sometime around the Combine, the stock of Jerod Mayo climbed to a point that it never should have. Pop in the game tape of him and there is a good shot you’ll need to look up what number he wears. He was pretty average in every facet of the game and his lack of size to go along with his lack of ability to get off blocks will mean he needs to be in a certain scheme with certain players around him. First round picks generally don’t come with all of those “ifs,” thus his name will likely be called outside of the top 40. He has the athleticism to upgrade his versatility value but will it be enough to get him drafted ahead of the ‘backers that have similar speed and more size? Doubt it.
Joe Flacco - QB - Delaware
The hype surrounding this kid has always been a bit confusing and despite his poor showing at the Senior Bowl where he was actually up against legit Division I athletes, he remained as a possible first-round pick. The Ben Roethlisberger comparison started to pop up here, there and everywhere but the only things that warranted it was size and collegiate level of play. Sure Flacco can throw the deep ball with the best of them, but is that all it takes to be a first-round signal caller? His accuracy was an issue at a slow level of college football and it will take a lot of time to progress in the NFL, no doubt about it. The likes of Chad Henne and Brian Brohm have similar upside but a much higher basement, needing less polish. Flacco’s up and down nature will make teams think twice about him being a top-40 pick and if he was still available on Sunday, surprise would not be found here.
Phillip Merling - DE - Clemson
While the sports hernia did not help his stock, that’s not what will drop him out of the top 20. Defensive ends who don’t get to the passer often enough to warrant a first round pick need to at least have one of two things; top tier physical tools that just need to be coached up or a huge body that is beastly against the run. Merling has neither and he is a stereotypical case of the internet hype surely to disappoint on draft day. This does not mean his name won’t be called in the first round but when you compare his package to the guys that are behind him on most of the boards you see across the web, there is a good shot he takes a pretty hard fall into the second round.