Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008

New Era Scouting’s Caleb Johnson brings to you ‘Looking Back,’ a retroactive perspective of how the top Draft-eligible players ranked coming out of high school and junior college.

Anyone can tell you that scouting high school and junior college prospects, like scouting for the draft, is very hit-or-miss. There are countless cases of highly rated incoming college prospects that can’t live up to the hype. Likewise, there are success stories of under-the-radar prospects that shine in college and eventually in the NFL. Since New Era Scouting high school rankings don’t run this far back, here is how the NES Top 50 Draft eligible players ranked in high school according to the two major high school recruiting websites, Rivals.com and Scout.com.

1. DE Chris Long, Virginia
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (5.8*) / #6 strongside defensive end / #5 player in Virginia
Scout: 3-star / #20 defensive tackle

2. OT Jake Long, Michigan
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #31 offensive tackle / #6 player in Michigan
Scout: 4-star / #72 in Scout100 / #11 offensive lineman

3. DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (6.0) / #47 in Rivals100 / #5 defensive tackle / #2 player in Louisiana
Scout: 5-star / #21 in Scout100 / #2 defensive tackle

4. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Class of 2005
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #23 in Rivals100 / #2 athlete / #1 player in Arkansas
Scout: 4-star / #51 in Scout100 / #9 running back

5. DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (5.8) / #11 weakside defensive end / #12 player in Michigan
Scout: 3-star / #39 defensive end

6. QB Matt Ryan, Boston College
Class of 2003
Rivals: 3-star (NR) / #25 pro-style quarterback / #12 player in Pennsylvania
Scout: 3-star / #44 quarterback

7. DT Sedrick Ellis, Southern Cal
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #68 in Rivals100 / #5 defensive tackle / #8 player in California
Scout: 4-star / #87 in Scout100 / #9 defensive tackle

8. OT Ryan Clady, Boise State
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (NR)
Scout: 2-star

9. OLB Keith Rivers, Southern Cal
Class of 2004
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #5 in Rivals100 / #1 inside linebacker / #1 player in southeast
Scout: 5-star / #12 in Scout100 / #3 linebacker

10. CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (5.2)
Scout: 2-star / #78 cornerback

11. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State
Class of 2004
Rivals: Not in the database
Scout: Not in the database

12. CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida
Class of 2003
Rivals: 3-star (NR) / #45 cornerback / #92 player in Florida
Scout: 3-star / #32 cornerback

13. OG Branden Albert, Virginia
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (5.0)
Scout: 1-star

14. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Class of 2005
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #10 in Rivals100 / #1 running back / #1 player in Washington
Scout: 5-star / #16 in Scout100 / #3 running back

15. DE Derrick Harvey, Florida
Class of 2004
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #8 in Rivals100 / #2 weakside defensive end / #1 player in Maryland
Scout: 5-star / #16 in Scout100 / #3 defensive end

16. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Class of 2005
Rivals: 4-star (5.9) / #90 in Rivals100 / #9 running back / #4 player in Illinois
Scout: 5-star / #24 in Scout100 / #6 running back

17. WR Limas Sweed, Texas
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #13 wide receiver / #14 player in Texas
Scout: 4-star / #30 wide receiver

18. OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt
Class of 2003
Rivals: 2-star (NR)
Scout: 2-star

19. ILB Dan Connor, Penn State
Class of 2004
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #24 in Rivals100 / #2 inside linebacker / #3 player in Pennsylvania
Scout: 5-star / #6 in Scout100 / #2 linebacker

20. CB Antoine Cason, Arizona
Class of 2004
Rivals: 3-star (5.5) / #37 cornerback / #61 player in California
Scout: 2-star / #65 cornerback

21. QB Brian Brohm, Louisville
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (5.9) / #78 in Rivals100 / #5 pro-style quarterback / #1 player in Kentucky
Scout: 4-star / #32 in Scout100 / #6 quarterback

22. DE Quentin Groves, Auburn
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #12 weakside defensive end / #8 player in Mississippi
Scout: 3-star / #25 defensive end

23. ILB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (5.8) / #11 outside linebacker / #4 player in Virginia
Scout: 3-star / #25 linebacker

24. DE Phillip Merling, Clemson
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (5.4) / listed as a tight end
Scout: 3-star / #34 tight end

25. QB Chad Henne, Michigan
Class of 2004
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #13 in Rivals100 / #3 pro-style quarterback / #2 player in Pennsylvania
Scout: 5-star / #27 in Scout100 / #4 quarterback

26. S Kenny Phillips, Miami (FL)
Class of 2005
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #12 in Rivals100 / #1 safety / #2 player in Florida
Scout: 5-star / #10 in Scout100 / #1 safety

27. QB Joe Flacco, Delaware
Class of 2003
Rivals: 3-star (NR) / #39 pro-style quarterback
Scout: 3-star / #43 quarterback

28. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
Class of 2005
Rivals: 4-star (5.8) / #19 athlete / #4 player in Oklahoma
Scout: 3-star / #61 running back

29. WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State
Class of 2006 (JUCO)
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #15 in JUCO Top 100
Scout: 3-star

30. CB Aqib Talib, Kansas
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (5.2)
Scout: 2-star / listed as a safety

31. TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M
Class of 2005
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #8 in Rivals100 / #1 tight end / #1 player in Texas
Scout: 5-star / #26 in Scout100 / #2 tight end

32. DT Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina
Class of 2004
Rivals: 3-star (5.5) / #37 strongside defensive end / #15 player in North Carolina
Scout: 2-star / #67 defensive end

33. WR Desean Jackson, California
Class of 2005
Rivals: 5-star (6.1) / #18 in Rivals100 / #3 wide receiver / #3 player in California
Scout: 5-star / #29 in Scout100 / #4 wide receiver

34. OLB Shawn Crable, Michigan
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #39 in Rivals100 / #2 weakside defensive end / #4 player in Ohio
Scout: 3-star / #21 defensive end

35. OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh
Class of 2006 (JUCO)
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #31 in JUCO Top 100
Scout: 4-star / #27 offensive lineman

36. WR James Hardy, Indiana
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (5.4)
Scout: 2-star

37. OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston College
Class of 2003
Rivals: 3-star (NR) / #35 offensive tackle / #45 player in atlantic east
Scout: 4-star / #27 offensive lineman

38. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma
Class of 2005
Rivals: 4-star (6.0) / #68 in Rivals100 / #6 wide receiver / #7 player in Texas
Scout: 5-star / #50 in Scout100 / #6 wide receiver

39. OT Sam Baker, Southern Cal
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #91 in Rivals100 / #4 offensive guard / #13 player in California
Scout: 4-star / #94 in Scout100 / #15 offensive lineman

40. OLB Curtis Lofton, Oklahoma
Class of 2005
Rivals: 4-star (6.0) / #62 in Rivals100 / #4 inside linebacker / #1 player in Oklahoma
Scout: 4-star / #61 in Scout100 / #9 linebacker

41. S Reggie Smith, Oklahoma
Class of 2005
Rivals: 4-star (6.0) / #64 in Rivals100 / #5 cornerback / #2 player in Oklahoma
Scout: 5-star / #27 in Scout100 / #2 safety

42. RB Jamaal Charles, Texas
Class of 2005
Rivals: 4-star (6.0) / #57 in Rivals100 / #7 running back / #4 player in Texas
Scout: 4-star / #14 running back

43. DE Calais Campbell, Miami (FL)
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (5.8) / #10 strongside defensive end / #3 player in Colorado
Scout: 4-star / #50 in Scout100 / #7 defensive end

44. WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt
Class of 2005
Rivals: 3-star (5.5) / #18 player in Alabama
Scout: 3-star

45. DT Pat Sims, Auburn
Class of 2004
Rivals: 4-star (5.8) / #20 defensive tackle / #70 player in southeast
Scout: 3-star / #56 defensive tackle

46. RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina
Class of 2004
Rivals: 2-star (5.0)
Scout: 1-star / listed as a wide receiver

47. RB Ray Rice, Rutgers
Class of 2005
Rivals: 3-star (5.5) / #19 all-purpose back / #11 player in New York
Scout: 3-star / #59 cornerback

48. WR Keenan Burton, Kentucky
Class of 2003
Rivals: 3-star (NR) / #43 safety / #5 player in Kentucky
Scout: 2-star

49. DT Trevor Laws, Notre Dame
Class of 2003
Rivals: 4-star (NR) / #16 defensive tackle / #1 player in Minnesota
Scout: 4-star / #12 defensive tackle

50. CB Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech
Class of 2004 (Prep School)
Rivals: 3-star (NR)
Scout: 2-star

* = In 2004, Rivals started using a numerical system to further distinguish players. The rankings go from 4.9-6.1, and for instance can tell you if a player is considered a borderline 2/3-star prospect (5.4 and 5.5) or just outside of 5-star consideration (6.0). The following is how it breaks down.

4.9-5.4 - 2-star
5.5-5.7 - 3-star
5.8-6.0 - 4-star
6.1 - 5-star

The top 50 features 13 members of the class of 2003 (redshirt seniors), 22 members of the class of 2004 (seniors and redshirt juniors), 13 members of the class of 2005 (early entry juniors and redshirt sophomores), and 2 members of the class of 2006 (junior college transfers).

Rivals Breakdown: (averaging 32.3 5-stars per year)
5-stars: 9 (18%)
4-stars: 22 (44%)
3-stars: 10 (20%)
2-stars: 8 (16%)
Not in database: 1 (Cromartie - 2%)
Rivals100 members: 19 (38%)

Scout Breakdown: (averaging 50.7 5-stars per year)
5-stars: 12 (24%)
4-stars: 12 (24%)
3-stars: 14 (28%)
2-stars: 10 (20%)
1-stars: 1 (2%)
Not in database: 1 (Cromartie - 2%)
Scout100 members: 19 (38%)