Hype: Right on Schedule
by Dave Gardner
A lot of hype surrounds the release of the NFL schedule, but only because it reminds us all again of Autumn. Dave Gardner looks at the impact of the schedule on a few teams as they all battle toward Super Bowl XLIII.
By Dave Gardner
Every year, a lot of hype surrounds the release of the NFL’s schedule, but it doesn’t really matter all that much. Players, coaches, and fans eagerly await the release of not who their opponents will be – they already know all but two of their opponents in 2009 – but in what order they will be played. Sure the five prime-time appearances might be exciting for Browns fans now, but what happens if they hit a midseason slump?
Trying to predict the best games in weeks 10-17 is like trying to pick all six playoff teams in the NFC: it’s going to be wildly inaccurate. Every year, teams that are supposed to be good (the Rams last year) pack it up in December, and teams aren’t predicted to be in the playoffs (like the Giants) continue playing well into January. If you like bad predictions – like ESPN’s 16 experts all excluding the Giants from their preseason playoff predictions – then refer to Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s annual “Bad Prediction Review,” but you won’t find any here. In fact, you’ll only find one prediction in the whole column.
Instead, let’s take a look a breath from this asphyxiating amount of instant analysis (ESPN’s “Hashmarks” Blog has already made 26 posts about the schedule). Let’s look at what we can see clearly right now: whose schedule is better and worse from prime-time and logistical standpoints.
Byeing Time
For many fans, the bye week is their least favorite week of the season. However, coaches dread getting early bye weeks as injuries tend to catch up with teams later in the season. The latest byes this year are on the weeks of November 2nd and Novemeber 9th. From the looks of it, the NFC will be more rested heading into the playoffs, as just two of the eight squads receiving these byes – the Baltimore Ravens and San Diefo Chargers – are members of the AFC. The rest? The Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Washington Redskins.
The teams that got the dreaded September byes are: the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, and Miami Dolphins. The team most likely to be affected by this is the Patriots. As a veteran team, they much prefer to have their byes later in the season to allow players to recuperate from injuries. It’s also interesting to note that the majority of these teams were in the playoffs last season; the NFL could be hoping for some more late-season excitement as these teams may wear down during the stretch when a first-round bye is still on the line.
Dividing Time
It seems that the NFL is trying to make the divisional games more and more important. The Monday night and Sunday night schedules feature a total of 16 divisional games, and Week 17 will feature nine divisional games. They are certainly hoping that those late divisional games will contribute to more late-season excitement and competition – a major complaint of the end of last season (see: Titans @ Colts, week 17). Both the first game of the season and the last Monday night game will also be divisional matchups as the Giants host the Redskins and the Packers travel to Chicago, respectively.
The toughest divisions last year were the AFC South and the NFC East. Each team had three of its teams make the playoffs, and the AFC South was historically good, recording the best divisional record of all time at 42-22 (.656). The NFC East wasn’t far behind at 40-24. The 2007 AFC South broke the previous record held by the 1975 AFC Central, 36-20 (.643).
Prime Time
The Cleveland Browns stand out above all others here, nabbing five primetime games just one year removed from being everyone’s preseason rag dolls. They have three games on Monday Night Football, will host Sunday Night Football for the first time, and will host Dallas for the NFL Network’s first live game of the season. It’s an exciting time for the Browns, but they are under a lot of pressure to perform right now. Opting to trade first three draft picks for veterans, if the Browns don’t win now, they could find themselves in a big hole again in a couple of seasons.
The other headliners here feature only a few surprises: The Cowboys lead the league in prime-time games, with six (one of which is their annual Thanksgiving game). Other teams with four or more include are: the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants, and the Colts and the Patriots. And without stepping out on a limb, here is the one prediction of the column: this will be one of, if not the best, game this season. It’s going to feature a Brett Favre-less John Madden talking about the two best quarterbacks in the league in the Colts brand new Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Chargers, the Packers, and the Steelers round out the locks. The two surprises are the Eagles and the Bears. The Eagles will have a young team this year and a lot of potential, but it’s hard to justify this schedule for an 8-8 team; the Bears were just terrible last season, and have a lot of holes on their roster.
The Bucs will make their return to prime-time after being shut out last season with three late-night games. However, the Dolphins, Chiefs, Rams, and Falcons weren’t so lucky: they were shut out of nationally televised games. That all could change if one makes a playoff run, and NBC uses its flex scheduling on the team.
So now that the schedule has been released, we’re only the Draft, some more OTAs, a minicamp or two, training camp, and the preseason away from glorious NFL football again. “Believe in Now,” says the NFL’s new slogan… just wait a little while longer before you do.
Don’t fight it, write it! Got a question or a comment? Send it in to theconstantgardner@newerascouting.com. Include your name and hometown, and I might include you in an upcoming article (unless you instruct me otherwise).