Dave Ryan looks at how the first round of the draft is projected to go down, along with giving an analysis of each pick.

 

 

By Dave Ryan

 

 

Even though Vernon Gholston is the best pure pass rusher available in this draft, the Dolphins really cannot hurt themselves one bit by taking Chris Long here. A workhorse like Long would thrive in Miami’s scheme, and should prove to be a very worthwhile selection for a team destined to improve next season.

Even with those silly rumors that Gholston is somehow an overrated prospect (tell that to Jake Long), the Rams might regret letting his unique blend of size and speed pass them by. A physical freak like Gholston could finally give the Rams a pass rush worth talking about.

If there is one potential “lock” for the top 10 this year, then Matt Ryan to the Falcons is probably it. Atlanta is desperately seeking a franchise quarterback, and Ryan has the raw talent and moxie to step in and immediately make an impact.

It seems almost impossible to fathom Darren McFadden dropping out of the top five, but there still remains a distinct possibility that it could be happen on draft day. McFadden is the best player to come out of college football in the past two years, and could almost single-handedly turn the Raiders into a playoff contender next season.

Although they are in a prime position to trade this pick away to the Cowboys for a package of draft choices, there is no way that the Chiefs pass on the best offensive tackle in the draft. Jake Long is an ideal building block for a team like the Chiefs, and should anchor their offensive line for the next 10 years.

While it is highly questionable whether Leodis McKelvin is actually the top corner available, his return skills give him an extra boost of value that his peers at the position cannot match. Much like how Pacman Jones elevated his draft stock a few years ago, McKelvin clearly deserves to go this early for the simple fact that he is one of the most electric players in the entire draft.

Everyone in Boston can go ahead and mail a nice thank-you letter to the San Francisco 49ers organization for this delightfully early selection. If Dorsey is somehow available when the Pats make this pick, then the whole forfeiting of their other first rounder might not sting nearly as much. Some have called him the best defensive player this year, and Dorsey is a ridiculous steal if he happens to drop out of the top five picks.

The Ravens might be holding out for a monumental Matt Ryan slip come draft day, but that appears to be nothing short of false hope at the moment. Jenkins is the type of corner who has the swagger and legit NFL ability to shine a bright star in Baltimore, and he just might have the highest ceiling of any single cornerback in this draft class as well.

Holding tightly onto the ninth pick, the Bengals are in a great position to get one heck of a player this year at this spot. While LSU’s Glenn Dorsey might be a tad out of reach, USC’s Sedrick Ellis has the potential to be every bit as dominant. Cincinnati should seriously be eyeing Rashard Mendenhall here, but Ellis might be too hard to pass up knowing that he fills such a pressing need on defense.

Now that he’s almost locked his way into being considered a top-10 pick, Clady would probably only fall this far if Kansas City were to wind up with Jake Long at No. 5. There are a ton of players who could be just as enticing for the Saints to choose from here, but none represents more overall value to New Orleans than grabbing the No. 2 offensive tackle in the draft.

If there’s one team that needs to go after a receiver in the first round this year, then it is probably the Buffalo Bills. The lack of height at receiver on the Bills’ roster also is an area of concern, and the 6-foot-5 Sweed would be a perfect addition for a team yearning for a true end-zone threat.

With a style of offense dedicated to their zone-blocking ability, the Broncos not only could stand to add another offensive lineman, but if Albert were available then this might actually turn out to be more of a necessity. Albert’s rare blend of size and athleticism allows him to play four positions on the line, and that’s about as good as it gets for a Denver team with not a whole lot of o-line depth to begin with.

The Panthers are looking for another athletic pass rusher to pair with Julius Peppers, and Harvey is widely considered to be the best available outside of the top two defensive ends in the class (Long, Gholston). Harvey made great strides from his junior to senior seasons at Florida, and he should turn out to be a very good NFL player in Carolina’s system.

Assuming the Bears go with the best offensive lineman available now that Albert and Clady are off the board, Vanderbilt’s Chris Williams has to be their main target here. Williams isn’t going to protect whoever is under center all by himself either, so the Bears would be smart to snatch up another big man or two in the later rounds as well.

The Lions are desperate for a franchise runner, and Mendenhall should be the guy if he’s still on the board here. But with that said, predicting Matt Millen’s draft strategy is never easy, and Detroit could end up going a completely different way with this pick (DE, OT).

Antrel Rolle’s move to safety opens up a gaping hole at cornerback in the Arizona secondary, so you can bet the Cardinals will go after a shutdown corner if available when they make this pick. Cromartie could very well end up as the first corner selected in three weeks, and for Arizona to get him here is the definition of an ideal scenario.

Even though the left side of Minnesota’s offensive line is about as dominant as you could imagine, the Vikings could still stand to add a potential starter at their right tackle spot. Gosder Cherilus is everything the Vikings should be looking for to fill that void, and he could develop into a nice surprise down the road.

Much like Matt Ryan to the Falcons, Jonathan Stewart looks to be a virtual lock for the Texans if he’s still on the board here. A one-cut runner like Stewart is a perfect fit for Houston’s zone-blocking scheme, and even though he’s expected to miss a while due to a toe injury, there’s not a logical reason for the Texans to pass on him.

It’s hard to see Rivers dropping this far knowing his impressive showing at USC’s Pro Day a couple of days ago, but there are also a lot of cornerbacks and offensive tackles that should stand to directly impact where Rivers’ destination will be. The Eagles would be foolish to let a tenacious, sideline to sideline stud like Rivers drop any further even with glaring needs at other positions staring them straight in the face.

Purely from a Cover 2 defensive perspective, there might not be a better cornerback in this class than Arizona’s Antoine Cason. This pick would not only fill a need, but the Bucs would also be snatching up a potential shutdown corner in the process.

With five offensive linemen already off the board, the Skins would be wise to grab a potentially dominating pass rusher like Merling with this selection. Clemson’s speedy end has everything that Washington has been searching for in a starter, and he should unseat Philip Daniels almost immediately for the starting role opposite Andre Carter.

If the Cowboys aren’t able to package both their first round picks to move up and grab Darren McFadden, then his understudy at Arkansas might be their next best option. Jones would most likely be available when Dallas picks at No. 28, but there’s probably no reason to let him slide by and watch him end up on another team’s roster.

Even though ex-Steeler Alan Faneca made his money at guard during his tenure in Pittsburgh, the Steelers still might need to grab an offensive tackle here in the later stages of the first round. Otah, while not the most mobile tackle in the draft, has the raw tools you look for in a lineman, and would give Pittsburgh a guy who should be able to step in and play at a very high level in two to three years.

In a perfect world, the Titans would love to be able to land either Malcolm Kelly or Limas Sweed with this pick. The smart odds are that both players might be way off the board at this point, leaving Tennessee with a difficult decision if they plan on seriously upgrading their weak receiving corps.

In a tight end class dominated by third and fourth round type players, the Seahawks might just have to go with whoever they feel is the No. 1 overall at the position when they make this choice. Fred Davis has seen his stock go up as of late due to some impressive workout numbers, but this would still ultimately be considered a reach if he were to go this high on draft day.

Even though they drafted safety Reggie Nelson in the first round last year, the Jaguars still can stand to upgrade their secondary. Reggie Smith can play both cornerback and safety equally well, and his versatility makes him an ideal weapon for a team that always has a place for a defensive playmaker.

As much as another offensive lineman would seem like the best choice here, a potential Pro Bowler at safety like Kenny Phillips has no business dropping out of the first round. The Chargers are unbelievably thin in the secondary, and Phillips has the talent to start right away and make a big-time impact.

While some are claiming Michigan State’s Devin Thomas to be a potential option here, the fact remains that Thomas is about as raw as you’d ever like a first round receiver ever to be. Jackson is a playmaker in every sense of the word, and could give the Cowboys’ offense even more explosiveness along with fellow Dallas first rounder Felix Jones.

Since the 49ers chose for the most part to ignore the linebacker position via free agency, it points a telling finger toward the team going with a linebacker with this late-round selection. Mayo’s athleticism will allow him to play either inside or outside, giving San Francisco another versatile weapon on their defense.

Not expected by many people to drop quite this far, Talib’s lack of top-end speed could signal this type of slide on draft day. The Packers already have physical corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris, so Talib would be right at home playing the Green Bay brand of football.

The defending champions are left somewhat thin at linebacker due to free agency, but they should benefit from a lack of elite talent at the position this year. A fierce tackler like Connor would be a welcome addition to their defensive rotation, and he should continue to produce at an extremely high level much like he did during his collegiate tenure.

 

 

What’s On Tap?

(4/14)-Two Round Mock w/ Analysis

(4/21)-Seven Round Mock w/ Analysis

(4/25)-Final Seven Round Mock w/ Analysis

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