Parcells Holds the Key
by David Syvertsen
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As Dave Syvertsen writes, the first eight picks of the draft will hinge solely on what Bill Parcells decides to do at No. 1 overall. Dave examines several scenarios.
By Dave Syvertsen
After reading, watching and listening to everything out there when it comes to the 2008 NFL Draft, there seems to be more difficulty in predicting what the No. 1 overall selection will end up being. One could make the case for four separate prospects that Miami Dolphins team president Bill Parcells will hand into the commissioner a few weeks from now. Will he go with the signal caller Matt Ryan to get a franchise quarterback in place for the toughest rebuilding job in the NFL? How about the versatile Chris Long that is a coach’s dream when it comes to intangibles and ability to play multiple roles in a 3-4 defense? Will he go with an edge rusher a la Lawrence Taylor in Vernon Gholston to put that defense over the hump? Or will he go with Jake Long because of his love for strong play in the trenches?
No matter what Parcells opts to do, that first pick holds the key to every mock draft out there much more so than you can find in past drafts. Whatever the selection is, the shock effects could be felt all the way down to the ninth overall pick. Let’s dive into each possible scenario and examine what could go down afterwards.
1 - Dolphins - Chris Long - DE - Virginia
2 - Rams - Jake Long - OT - Michigan
3 - Falcons - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU
4 - Raiders - Vernon Gholston - DE - Ohio State
5 - Chiefs - Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC
6 - Jets - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas
7 - Patriots - Mike Jenkins - CB - South Florida
8 - Ravens - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College
This appears to be the way Miami is leaning but there is plenty of time for the scale to tip in another direction over the next few weeks. That leaves Jake Long, whom the Rams are very high on because of their need for a tackle on both sides of the offensive line. Will the Falcons then opt for Matt Ryan, the top quarterback of the class who is questioned as a top-tier prospect? It is highly doubtful as the gap between Ryan and the likes of Joe Flacco and Brian Brohm is far from steep. They will look to spend this pick on Glenn Dorsey of LSU assuming his lower-half injuries check out alright. The Raiders are the next X-factor because with Darren McFadden still on the board and Al Davis’ love for the dramatic. He’ll be available here no matter who the ‘Phins take but the Raiders will pass because of their strength at the running back position they currently have, opting edge talent in Vernon Gholston. That leaves the Chiefs with one of two options should they stay put at, penetrating powerhouse defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis or an offensive linemen with enormous upside in Branden Albert. A top-five pick on a guard is unlikely and his potential as a tackle is too questionable, thus the Ellis selection makes the most sense. The Jets may be the most starved for offensive talent team in this draft, and their need for a homerun threat looms too large for them to pass on arguably the most talented prospect the draft has seen since Reggie Bush. The Patriots will unlikely be affected by any of the previous picks, as it seems Mike Jenkins appears to be the perfect fit for them. Ryan then falls into the laps of a leaping for joy fan base in Baltimore.
1 - Dolphins - Jake Long - OT - Michigan
2 - Rams - Vernon Gholston - Ohio State
3 - Falcons - Chris Long - DE - Virginia
4 - Raiders - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas
5 - Chiefs - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU
6 - Jets - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College
This move for the Dolphins would not surprise at all, as Jake Long is clearly the top offensive lineman in the draft. Miami’s offensive line might have been the worst in all of football last season and without strong play in the trenches, your team will go nowhere. The Rams would then have a tough decision on their hands with No. 2 overall because they have a huge need for edge talent, which Chris Long is not and Gholston is. Adam Carriker is already their versatile defensive lineman, and there needs to be more balance with a speed rusher on the outside. Chris Long won’t fall past the Falcons even though they have a 2007 top-10 pick on one end and a high-priced veteran starting on the opposite side. Long can spell both of them as well as see action as a Justin Tuck-type pass rusher up the middle. With the defensive ends off the board, the Raiders have no choice but to go after the sexy pick here in McFadden who could thrive or dive in Oakland. The Chiefs then get their top rated defensive tackle in Dorsey and the Jets continue with their offensive mindset and bring in Matt Ryan to push Kellen Clemens a la Phillip Rivers and Drew Brees as well as Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.
1 - Dolphins - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston Collge
2 - Rams - Jake Long - OT - Rams
3 - Falcons - Chris Long - DE - Virgina
4 - Raiders - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas
5 - Chiefs - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU
6 - Jets - Vernon Gholston - DE - Ohio State
Should Parcells really fall in love with Ryan, which is possible and don’t think it’s not, it will not have a huge shocking effect. The Rams still get their No. 1 guy as do the Falcons. The Raiders’ board was altered because as stated above, they are the holder of X-factor number two and you have to consider both possibilities here. The Chiefs still get their No. 1 defensive line talent and the Jets opt for an edge talent they have lacked for too long.
1 - Dolphins - Vernon Gholston - OLB - Ohio State
2 - Rams - Jake Long - OT - Michigan
3 - Falcons - Chris Long - DE - Virginia
4 - Raiders - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas
5 - Chiefs - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU
6 -Jets - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College
While this seems to be the most unlikely No. 1 pick overall scenario, it’s still within the realm of possibility because of Gholston’s limitless potential as an edge talent. He has more upside than any defensive prospect in this draft and if Parcells places a lot of trust in the coaching staff he put together, Gholston could have a Shawne Merriman type impact. The Rams would love for this to happen as they would get their top guy as would Atlanta. Again, Oakland will go into this draft under a win-win mindset because no matter what happens before them, it’s almost a sure thing either Gholston or McFadden will be there at the fourth pick. As stated before, the Chiefs and Jets go after Dorsey and Ryan, respectively.