Stretching the Field: High Stakes
by Luke Paul Chandler
Top ten draft picks become more of a gamble every season with the increased amount of money that is spent each year. This week Luke Paul Chandler looks at the top ten prospects of the 2008 class, and wonders how they may impact a team.
By Luke Paul Chandler
Every year, teams are forced to spend more money on first round picks than ever before. With a skyrocketing salary cap, and no restrictions on rookie contracts built into the collective bargaining agreement, teams are making educated gambles with a first round pick. Last year, JaMarcus Russell received nearly $30 million in guaranteed money from the Raiders as the first overall pick. As a rule of thumb, agents generally try to negotiate a 10 percent increase in guaranteed money for first round picks in the same slot as the year before. Many veterans never see anywhere near that amount of guaranteed money. The implications of busting on a top 10 pick can ruin a team’s salary cap planning for years to come. The risk is starting to outweigh the reward.
With rookie contracts slowly approaching the range of being more costly than free agent moves, teams have to choose wisely. This week, New Era Scouting’s Top 10 prospects will reviewed, and a question will be asked of their potential to become busts down the road.
1. Jake Long, OT, Michigan- Is he banking on the market and need for left tackles?
Long is a talent, but some wonder if he’s truly a right tackle. Right tackles generally make less money than lefts, and rarely go in the top 10. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Joe Thomas, in 2006 and 2007 respectively, were left tackles drafted in the top five who made an impact. Is Long of their caliber? He has better size and wingspan than both, but he lacks the quickness and footwork of Ferguson and Thomas, the new NFL left tackle.
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU - Is Dorsey healthy?
Teams will wonder about how long Dorsey can hold up in the NFL. His reports of a stress fracture to his right tibia from a 2006 weight-lifting incident will linger with teams. Dorsey also was banged up at various points during his senior season. His value is high, but in a league where cut-blocking has become a common practice, can a team afford to pay upwards of $20 million guaranteed to a defensive tackle with high injury risks?
3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas - Should we be concerned about his character?
McFadden’s talent on field is second to none in this draft. His character concerns could be an issue, though. He was part of an incident at a bar in Little Rock in February, where he was handcuffed but not arrested, due an altercation. This ties into a 2006 incident, also at a bar, where McFadden had a toe dislocated during an altercation outside of a night club at nearly 5 a.m. A point to keep in mind is that McFadden is not of legal drinking age. He is also allegedly the father of four children, all with different women. His situation is eerily similar to that of Denver running back Travis Henry, who’s had trouble with both the law and paternity during his time in the NFL. Is McFadden going to rise above the trouble in his life, or will it follow him around the NFL?
4. Chris Long, DE, Virginia - What position do you play him at?
Unlike any other prospect this year, Long has teams scratching their head over where to play him. Some teams feel he is able to play the five-technique in a 3-4 defense, his natural position in college, others feel he could be a strong-side end in a 4-3 defense, and even some have labeled him a 3-4 outside linebacker prospect. His college coach, Al Groh, has endorsed him as a possible 3-4 outside linebacker. All of this leaves the question of whether Long has truly set himself apart at any position. He dominated in Virginia’s defense, but is he able to hold up physically as a two-gap end in an NFL 3-4? If Long is a jack of trades, and a master of none, he’s a huge gamble for any team in the top 10.
5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC - Is he dedicated enough to stay in shape?
The former Trojan three-year starter has great quickness of the snap and ability to penetrate. At the Senior Bowl and Combine, though, he received a great deal of criticism for his physique and workouts. At the Senior Bowl, his body looked very soft in the mid-section, causing a great deal of concern. Following that up at the Combine with sluggish workouts, and teams could be concerned that he lacks the dedication to stay in shape over the course of an NFL season. Even for defensive tackles weighing 300-plus pounds, having a high percentage of body fat is correlated to higher risk for injury, and tiring later in games.
6. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College - Who were the cause of his turnovers, him or his supporting cast?
The Boston College quarterback showed up big as a senior, launching himself into elite draft status, but his inconsistency late in the season was an issue. Some critics will say that he lacked a solid group of receivers who would fight for the ball down-field, and that his deep interceptions were also the product of bad mechanics. Either way, Ryan could be in for a career of high turnover rates if this problem doesn’t correct itself.
7. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State - Is he able to play as a 4-3 weak-side end full time?
Gholston’s reputation as the top pass rusher in this class has been earned. He comes from a star-studded, high-exposure career at Ohio State, where he played the Leo, or drop end position. As the Leo, he was moved around to gain matchups and keep teams guessing about his assignment. Gholston appeared to get better pressure as a linebacker, or in a two-point stance. As an end, he still was productive, but would tire later in games. He would play with a higher pad level, and wasn’t as tenacious. So has Gholston officially been taken off the draft boards of 4-3 teams?
8. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon - How bad is the turf toe injury?
Stewart, who originally hurt the toe in November against Arizona, had surgery this past month to correct the injury, and could be out up to six months. While turf toe sounds like a nothing injury, it has ended several notable NFL career, most recently Deion Sanders and Eddie George. In particular with George, a noted work-horse back who shares a similar running style to Stewart, it ended his career in an abrupt way. For a player as young as Stewart to already be suffering from this injury has caused him to drop down a few value boards. Rumors are also floating that Stewart declared for the draft to guarantee himself a chunk of NFL money, in case the injury did prematurely end his career.
9. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State - Does he play inside or outside?
Connor, much like Paul Posluszny the year before, is faced with the question of whether he is better suited to play in the middle or on the outside. Connor’s more natural position appears to be the middle, but his quickness may tempt a team to move him outside. When Posluszny moved inside for his senior season at Penn State, in 2006, many felt it was a poor move, and that Connor should have been put on the inside. Many appear split on the issue, and depending on who is talked to, the answer changes.
10. Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma - Will Smith step up at either safety or corner?
The Sooners program has produced hit or miss results with its defensive backs of late, and Smith could be the next victim. Smith had started his career as a free safety, but was moved to cornerback in 2008. He never showed great speed or quickness at the position, and, at times, looked unnatural. He played better in zone coverage as the season wore on, showing better awareness, but he may be better off playing free safety in the NFL because of his stiff hips.
Contact Luke at Luke@newerascouting.com.