Stretching the Field: Running Down a Dream
by Luke Paul Chandler
For running backs like Ray Rice, they had no choice but to declare early for the NFL Draft. Luke Paul Chandler evaluates a new trend arising with college running backs.
By Luke Paul Chandler
The 2008 NFL Draft class has 55 underclassmen. Of those 55, eight are running backs, giving that position the highest amount of underclassmen. Most chatter and buzz in January was that several of these players made mistakes by not returning for their senior season, and refining their talent. Some of the backs had been labeled as too raw to quickly transition to the NFL, at a position where typically there is a quick learning curve. The reality is that many of these running backs made a brilliant career move.
The 2007 class saw two running backs emerge as starters and instant cornerstones for their franchise, Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch and Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. Of the 25 running backs taken last year, they were the only two to grab starting jobs in their rookie season. Peterson’s star-studded rookie year had the league talking about him being the best back in the league after a matter of weeks, and Lynch quietly moved the chains for a below-average Bills offense. What both stars had in common, though, was injuries slowing their productivity midseason, which was not shocking considering their history. Lynch lost three games near season’s end with a sprained ankle, an injury he struggled with at California. Peterson lost two games to a knee sprain. Both still logged heavy carries, though, as Lynch would have been on pace to log 344 carries if he played full season, and Peterson would have logged 317 carries in a full season. With that kind of average rushes per season, history indicates that by the 2012 presidential election, both backs will be nearing the end of their most productive years.
Of the league’s current starting running backs, only one was drafted prior to the 2000 season, the Texans’ Ahman Green. Green is falling apart, and is at least three years removed from his last impact season. Seattle’s soon to be deposed starter, Shaun Alexander, has been a starter since early in the 2001 season, and after nearly five seasons of 300-plus carries, he’s on his last legs, two years removed from an MVP season. Current Chargers star LaDainian Tomlinson, long thought to be the best and most durable running back in the league, has started to shown signs of aging with an injury to his knee in the playoff victory over the Chargers. Not surprisingly, he has had eight seasons with more than 300 rushing attempts, a number only matched by former Titans and Cowboys running back Eddie George.
How does it all tie into the underclassmen who declared for this draft? Simply, it’s about the mileage. Not surprisingly, of the top five backs in rush attempts, three of them are underclassmen who declared for this draft: UCF’s Kevin Smith, Rutgers’ Ray Rice and Arkansas’ Darren McFadden, in chronological order. For Rice, 2007 marked the second season in a row he has been in the top two in rushing attempts, he had 335 in 2006 and then 380 this season. The running back’s lifespan now, even for the elite, is starting to evaporate. By helping their university and logging heavy carries earlier in their career, it has started to become a necessity to declare early if a player wants to make it to the NFL and have a successful, healthy career.
For a back like Rice, he had to declare early. What makes it surprising is that a player like him is not going to be guaranteed to be picked within the first three rounds, thus giving him a lower amount of guaranteed money. For Rice, that may be the best thing to happen in his career. To sit for two seasons, while getting into an NFL training regiment, and keeping his legs fresh with limited touches, he has added a few more potential seasons as a feature back. If he sits for two years and backs up a veteran, then becomes a starter and productive in years three and four in the league, as he’s going to hit free agency he will be in his prime. His legs will be much fresher, he will still be relatively young, and hitting that elusive second contract that will garner him the most money.
On the flip side, staying for a senior season can break a player physically, and then drastically affect his draft stock. Take for instance Georgia Tech’s power running back, Tashard Choice. His physical running style earned him a great reputation while at Georgia Tech, and he was New Era Scouting’s top senior running back for most of the 2007 season. He in consecutive years has logged 261 and 297 carries, for an average of roughly 26 rushes per game. In 2007, without any semblance of a passing game because of the departure of Calvin Johnson to the NFL, Choice became the focal point of the offense, and he took a beating. His yards were much harder to come by, and with more aggressive, run-stopping fronts. The result was an arthroscopic surgery after injuring his knee against Army, then re-injuring it against Boise State in the Humanitarian Bowl. Choice now has slipped from potential first round pick to the third round or later. Teams have started to fear his injuries will start to pile up, and his best miles are behind him.
Expect this pattern to continue on in coming years. College running backs know that they may only have one shot to make it to the league and be productive, and the more carries they log while in college, the more they are taking away from their pro career. The glory of college football may not compare to them to the opportunities that they will get at the next level. So while many of these players, like Smith or Jamaal Charles may not be quite ready for the NFL, they have an expiration date coming up, they just don’t know when they will hit it.
Email Luke at Luke@newerascouting.com.