Running back and Fullback Preview
by Luke Paul Chandler
Every week until the draft, a different position will be previewed. This week, easily the deepest position in the draft, running back/fullback is previewed. Everyone knows how great Darren McFadden is, but what other future superstars are in this class?
By Luke Paul Chandler
Running back
The running back position for 2008 is loaded with talent, led by star junior Darren McFadden. McFadden is grading out as the best player in the draft for several teams, and is an instant impact player. The rest of the class is led by juniors, with Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Kevin Smith and Steve Slaton all holding down spots in the top 10. Stewart and Mendenhall, both power runners with low centers of gravity and tons of grit, are projected as first round picks. In Jones and Charles, teams will be getting all-purpose threats with great speed and escapability. There were some questions about the choices of Slaton, Smith and Ray Rice declare early, as their games does not translate well to the pro level.
The seniors in this class are solid, but their value will drop due to the loaded junior class. Matt Forte and Tashard Choice are between-the-tackles power runners who will wear out defenses. Unfortunately for them, the league is shifting away from that style of runner. Chris Johnson and Allen Patrick are the most dynamic of the senior backs. Both have great burst and straight-line speed, and project well to a back by committee approach in the NFL. Teams looking for a good receiver need look any further than Johnson, who’s soft hands and polished route running may drive him up draft boards come April.
Top Ten (As of 3/1/08)
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas, 6′2, 205
2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon, 5′11, 230
3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois, 5′11, 210
4. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas, 6′0, 200
5. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas, 6′1, 200
6. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane, 6′2, 225
7. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida, 6′1, 211
8. Chris Johnson, RB, ECU, 5′11, 195
9. Steve Slaton, RB, WVU, 5′10, 195
10. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech, 6′1, 205
Best By Trait
Inside Run - Jonathan Stewart (Oregon)
Outside Run - Felix Jones (Arkansas)
Elusiveness - Darren McFadden (Arkansas)
Power - Matt Forte (Tulane)
Blocking (Pass) - Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois)
Receiving/Hands - Mike Hart (Michigan)
Route Running - Chris Johnson (East Carolina)
Durability - Jonathan Stewart (Oregon)
Stud - Darren McFadden (Arkansas): McFadden is grading out higher than the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson, who set the record books on fire as a rookie in 2007. McFadden has amazing balance and body control, and is able to jump cut and change directions quickly. His use of the stiff arm and shiftiness allow him to avoid contact, and keep fresh for late in games. McFadden’s lower body strength is questionable, and he will need to work on thickening up his legs once he gets to the NFL. The only other flaw to his game is his ball security. Questions remain about McFadden’s character due to arrests at nightclubs, and news that he may have fathered four children while at Arkansas.
Sleeper - Matt Forte (Tulane): The senior from Tulane came out of nowhere in 2007 to rush for more than 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Forte is a well-built, powerful back. He has very quick feet, and is a dedicated runner who will follow his blocks. Forte does not have elite speed, but his size-to-speed ratio is impressive. Rarely was he caught from behind in 2007, and he can accelerate well once in the open field. A solid Senior Bowl week showed his play against weaker competition was not a factor, and that his talent is real.
Slipper - Kevin Smith (UCF): Coming out early for Smith may have been a mistake because, in a loaded junior class, he is only a 2nd Day prospect at this point. Smith finished with the second most rushing yards in a season in NCAA history, but his stats are a bit inflated. He rarely ran up the middle, and played soft at times. Mississippi State, one of the toughest run defenses teams in the nation, handed him a hard shot in the Auto Zone Liberty Bowl, holding him to 119 yards on 35 carries and 3.4 average. They forced Smith back inside by playing containment on the outsides and hitting him hard. Given the amount of talent in front of him in this class, it’s possible Smith could go undrafted.
Postion Grade: A-
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Fullback
Unlike most fullback classes, which rarely feature a Day 1 prospect, there could one this season between the top two candidates. Owen Schmitt and Peyton Hillis are athletic, versatile weapons who were keys to their teams success on the ground. In an era where we keep hearing about the death of the fullback, more teams used a fullback in a traditional blocking role in 2007 then had in years past. Look for the NFL teams to continue tweaking the position, and expanding it. A player like Schmitt fills that role perfectly, as he’s an excellent run blocker, but can be used in the passing game also.
Hillis lacks the blocking prowess of Schmitt, but he is a polished receiver and is the most athletic fullback in this class. Hillis has the speed, elusiveness and vision to be used in a similar fashion to the Rams’ Brian Leonard. He could be intriguing to teams like Philadelphia that run a true West Coast Offense, where the fullback is a valuable receiver out of the backfield. His blocking is not up to par with that of Schmitt or Mike Cox, but he is willing blocker. It would not be surprising to see Hillis drafted as an all purpose threat or third down back.
The most polished runner in the group is Louisiana State’s Jacob Hester, who ran for more than 1,000 yards this season. Hester is more of a running back than a fullback, but he has shown the willingness to play both positions. Hester, much like Hillis, is going to attract teams with his versatility and athleticism.
Top Five (As of 3/1/08)
1. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia, 6′2, 247
2. Peyton Hillis, FB, Arkansas, 6′2, 243
3. Jacob Hester, FB, Louisiana State, 6′0, 228
4. Carl Stewart, FB, Auburn, 6′2, 224
5. Mike Cox, FB, Georgia Tech, 6′1, 250
Best By Trait
Inside Run - Owen Schmitt (West Virginia)
Outside Run - Jacob Hester (Louisiana State)
Elusiveness - Peyton Hillis (Arkansas)
Power - Jacob Hester (Louisiana State)
Blocking (Pass) - Tom Busch (Iowa)
Blocking (Run) - Mike Cox (Georgia Tech)
Receiving/Hands - Owen Schmitt (West Virginia)
Route Running - Dionte Johnson (Ohio State)
Durability - Peyton Hillis (Arkansas)
Stud - Owen Schmitt (West Virginia): Schmitt is the top of the class, and will be a force in the NFL. He’s known for crushing face masks, literally, and will be a helpful piece for teams that run out of the I-formation. Schmitt is more than just a brute, and is an experienced runner and receiver. Schmitt lacks elite athleticism, but is more than capable for the position.
Sleeper - Mike Cox (Georgia Tech): If you want a fullback who can run deep patterns, and be an option as a runner, this is not the guy to look at. Cox is a bruising run blocker, and the truest definition of a throwback. He hits like a ton of bricks, and plays a very smart game. Cox may not get drafted, but he is reminiscent of former Charger Lorenzo Neal, one of the greatest blocking backs of all time.
Slipper - Dionte Johnson (Ohio State): Hardly mentioned during his time in Columbus, Johnson has been a bit of a disappointment. Despite having the skills to be an athletic, pass-catching option out of the backfield, that player rarely showed up on film. He started for one season, and even then played sparingly, as the team removed him in short-yardage situations.
Position Grade - B+
Email Luke at Luke@newerascouting.com.